BY ALAN HOLMAN
GUARDIAN COLUMNIST
Though it has happened before, the latest round of populism began with Brexit, when Britons voted against their own economic interests and opted to leave the European Union.
Then came the Trump success in the United States and a smattering of populist victories in eastern European countries, such as Poland, Hungary and ring-wing populism was in full swing. It was rejected in both the Netherlands and France, had a near success in Germany, but was back on track with the rejection of a leftist government in Italy.
In Canada, the victory of Doug Ford in the chaotic race to become leader of the Ontario Conservative party is being viewed in the same light, a swing to right-wing populism.
But, his victory was as much a defeat of the party establishment as it was a victory over Christine Elliot. Caroline Mulroney who came with a political name, but, no political experience wasn’t seen as an adequate alternative.
For Islanders, who will be going to the polls in a year or so, if not earlier, the question is, does any of this political turmoil have any implications here?
When you look at the turmoil is doesn’t neatly breakdown into left and right politics. Certainly, in eastern Europe the victors came from the right of the political spectrum, but Donald Trump is not really from the political right. He is no Tea-Party, hard-right Republican. He is a politically bizarre character who ran against the Republican establishment.
Similarly, in Britain. There weren’t any real left-right dimensions to the Brexit debate. There were people in all parties who favoured staying in Europe as were there among those who wanted to leave. Brexit was the rejection for what was perceived to be the wishes of the British and European power brokers.
Applying this wave of populism to Island politics the outcome likely depends on what you think is the driving force behind it. Island Conservatives want to believe it is a swing to the right and as a consequence believe they will be the beneficiaries of that swing.
The latest quarterly poll from Corporate Research Associates doesn’t do much to support that view. CRA reports that only 17 percent of Islanders support the Conservatives and only 16 percent support their leader.
But, what if the populist movement is viewed as some anti-establishment phenomena, rather than a move to the right.
Given the recent political history of the Island, where the Liberals serve for eight or ten years, followed by the Conservatives in government for a similar period, it could be argued that between them, the Liberals and the Tories constitute the political establishment on the Island.
With modern media, especially the internet, Islanders are more connected with the wider world in ways they have ever been. They are more aware of political ebbs and flows elsewhere and are likely influenced by them.
Awareness that the established political class is under siege in other jurisdictions may be a part of the popularity of the Green Party on the Island. The ham-fisted move to eject the Green Party leader from a recent session of the legislature did more damage to Premier MacLauchlan’s reputation than Peter Bevan-Baker’s.
The CRA poll showed the Green Party at 34 percent only eight points behind the Liberals, while Mr. Bevan-Baker’s support at 37 percent was 11 points higher the Premier’s.
A long-time observer of the Island political scene looked at these numbers and pointed out, that during an election, it is the popularity of the leader that prevails; a popular leader can lift party fortunes, but an unpopular leader drags the party down.
The Liberal Party is relatively popular, its leader isn’t, and the Conservatives have neither a popular party nor poplar leader. With the winds of change blowing elsewhere, there is a chance a gust or two may waft across Northumberland Strait, and who knows what that will mean.
- Alan Holman is a freelance journalist living in Charlottetown. He can be reached at: [email protected]
