BOSTON — How much, if anything, did a mediocre playoff performance by Mitch Marner cost the Maple Leafs’ leading scorer?
Estimates around the NHL are that Marner’s less-than-sterling play against the Boston Bruins in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs will drop his price next season and possibly complicate his already-complicated contract negotiations with the Leafs.
After leading the team with 94 points, Marner’s representatives were prepared to ask for Auston Matthews money — $11.6 million a year or more — and a strong playoffs would have certainly solidified that position for Marner.
But after scoring two goals in Game 1, Marner had just two assists the rest of the series, both of them coming on the power play: He had no points in the final three games of the series and was a minus player in all three games. After scoring 94 during the regular season, he scored at just a 46-point pace in the seven-game series.
If he wasn’t hurt, and we’ll probably find out more about that on Thursday, that’s a significant drop in production.
A year ago, Marner scored nine points in the seven-game loss to Boston — that’s a 105-point pace. He continued close to that level through most of the Maple Leafs season and was quite likely the team’s unofficial most valuable player.
So what now for Marner and the Maple Leafs? This is where he wants to play. He’s made no secret of that. And this is where they want him to play. Why wouldn’t they want a young, dynamic player like this? But coming to a contract agreement is not just confusing here, there’s a time element involved.
Basically, general manager Kyle Dubas has 67 days to get a deal done — and this is a test for him and his staff. The clock is already ticking. The negotiation with William Nylander didn’t necessarily reflect well on Dubas. It took too long and was too disruptive and the talented Nylander basically had a wasted season.
The Leafs believed they signed a star in Nylander on Dec. 1. Four months later, they truly have to reconsider what they have — especially considering how tight money is going to be around the Leafs. Can they afford to keep Nylander if they’re signing Marner to $10 million a year or more?
Nylander had a wandering season and a wandering playoffs. He scored one goal for the third straight playoff season. Nylander has played 20 playoff games for the Leafs and has three goals in total. Some journeyman named Joakim Nordstrom scored two goals himself for Boston this series.
They didn’t pay Nylander $6.9 million to be Joakim Nordstrom. Hell, the Game 7 overtime hero in San Jose, Barclay Goodrow, scored his second goal of this post-season. His salary: $650,000.
In Games 6 and 7, with the Leafs desperately in need of scoring to close out the series, Nylander had no goals. In Game 7, he had no shots on goal. There was no sign at any time during the season he was about to emerge as a front-line scorer.
Marner has shown himself to be a star already. His game in each of his three seasons has grown and gotten better. He’s been on a clear path, moving from 61 to 69 to 94 points in his three NHL seasons. He’s been an electric playmaker for the Leafs and partially responsible for John Tavares and Zach Hyman scoring more goals than ever before.
Those accolades are nice, but business is business. The Leafs are up against it salary-wise. And up against it time-wise.
If this negotiation goes to July 1, all bets are off and life could become troubling for the Leafs. There are teams interested in signing Marner to an offer sheet — knowing full well they may not get him. That would be a strategic signing — done basically to screw up the Leafs’ salary-cap circumstances.
It would get Marner more money and the Leafs more difficulty. That’s why the deal needs to be done before Marner hits restricted free agency on July 1. A deal that can’t be for Matthews money.
The Leafs need to sign Marner — and quick. Then they can scramble and figure out how everybody else fits in.
Copyright Postmedia Network Inc., 2019
