The equation to understanding how the Vancouver Canucks-Minnesota Wild qualifying round series might play out in Edmonton is pretty simple: one team is very, very good at defending and the other has very, very good goaltending.
This best-of-five NHL matchup — which starts Sunday night at Rogers Place — will hinge on how hard a time the Canucks have in getting to the Minnesota net and how on top of his game netminder Jacob Markstrom proves to be.
3.04
How big an addition to the Canucks’ lineup was Tyler Toffoli in his 10-game stint post-trade deadline and pre-COVID-19 pause?
According to the expected-goal metric — a measure of how many goals the Canucks were likely to score with him on the ice per 60 minutes — Toffoli was the Canucks’ most effective offensive player.
During his short stint with Vancouver, the Canucks were expected to score 3.04 goals every 60 minutes given the types of shots they were taking with him on the ice. That’s good, since three goals in an NHL game usually equals a win.
Toffoli has made the Canucks’ first line — alongside J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson — even better than it already was. With Toffoli, Pettersson and Miller improved their shot-attempts-for rate by five more shots per 60 minutes and decreased their shots-attempts-against rate by three.
“Just try and be more determined. Obviously their job is to box you out,” Toffoli said of the success he’s had in his career in getting to the prime scoring areas near the net. “There’s little techniques, but whoever wants it more is going to get there.”
The veteran winger has been everything the Canucks hoped he be when they acquired him from the Los Angeles Kings.
37.6
The Canucks’ fourth line has one job: survive.
The Canucks are only taking 37.6 per cent of the shot attempts when fourth-line centre Jay Beagle is on the ice. That’s the lowest percentage on the Canucks. He’s not in there to contribute offensively, but you can’t play defence forever.
At some point you are going to surrender goals when the opposition is getting that many cracks at your net.
The thing about Beagle is he was the low-man on the Capitals’ shot-attempts list in 2018, when Washington won the Stanley Cup. At least with the Caps he was middle of the pack in terms of the quality of shots the team was yielding with him on the ice.
In Vancouver, the only forward doing worse in stopping quality shots is Beagle’s regular left-winger, Tyler Motte.
162
The Canucks have a reputation for being a high-flying offence, but the truth is when it comes to five-on-five play, they’re a middling group. They scored 162 goals this season at even strength, which actually is fewer than the 169 the Wild scored.
10.4
The Canucks were a top-10 team in shooting percentage at even strength this season, scoring on 10.4 per cent of their shots. But Minnesota was actually a hair better at 10.5 per cent.
The Canucks have really made their offensive hay on the power play this season. They finished the regular season with the league’s fourth-best power play, scoring on 24.2 per cent of their man-advantage situations.
Despite their even-strength defensive prowess, the Wild have one of the league’s weaker penalty killing units, killing just 77.2 per cent of their penalties.
8.07
The Wild gave away the fewest high-danger chances of any team in the league, according to NaturalStatTrick.com, just 8.07 per 60 even-strength minutes, nearly one fewer than the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Boston Bruins, the next-stingiest teams in the NHL.
They make it really difficult to get to the net.
The Canucks get about 10.9 chances from in tight per game, which is roughly league average. They’re going to be under pressure to get to the net.
“At this time of the year a lot of goals are scored from around the paint and we’re going to have to find a way to get there,” head coach Travis Green said.
+20.2
According to Clear Sight Analytics, Jacob Markstrom prevented 20 more goals than you would expect given the quality of scoring chances he faced this season. That was second in the NHL, a hair behind Vezina Trophy-favourite Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets (he prevented 20.7 more goals more than expected).
For all the warts the Canucks have in their in-zone defending, Markstrom has repeatedly bailed his teammates out this season.
.932
Markstrom had a white-hot start to the season, posting an outstanding .932 save percentage through the regular season’s first five games. Some goalies start the season really well and that might be something to consider in projecting how this qualifying series could go.
Of course the Canucks lost the first two games on the year, but they turned around and won the next three.
Go figure.
ICE CHIPS — The Canucks may not be playing the Oilers, but they’ve never won a playoff game in Edmonton. The last time they played a post-season game in Edmonton was May 8, 1992, a 3-2 loss to the Oilers at Northlands Coliseum. Adrian Plavsic and Dave Babych scored the goals. … Green said Friday he anticipated having all his players healthy and available for selection on Sunday.
CLICK HERE to report a typo.
Is there more to this story? We’d like to hear from you about this or any other stories you think we should know about. Email [email protected]
Copyright Postmedia Network Inc., 2020
