HEAD TO HEAD
Goaltending
The team that has better goaltending will win. It doesn’t get much more basic in the playoffs.
Frederik Andersen doesn’t like to peer back much, so the Leafs have to hope their 30-year-old starter won’t recall that he usually starts slow in October. This is August and it’s a new start after nearly five months between games, but there will no luxury of time for Andersen to get in a groove.
One factor that might loom large: The Leafs have a legitimate backup in Jack Campbell and shouldn’t hesitate to turn to him on a moment’s notice.
Andersen wasn’t great before the pause, registering a .909 save percentage in 52 games, though he was at .915 at five-on-five. In 48 career playoff games, Andersen is 25-20.
Whoever starts in net for the Blue Jackets — Elvis Merzlikins or Joonas Korpisalo, coach John Tortorella would not say on Saturday — will be doing so in the NHL post-season for the first time. Each was sharp as the Jackets turned heads during the regular season: Merzlikins had a .931 save percentage at five-on-five, Korpisalo .926.
Andersen has been here before. He has to act like it.
Edge: Toronto
Defence
For the past several weeks, the Leafs have been reminding us it’s not so much their group of defencemen that have to tighten up, it’s the five Leafs on the ice at any given time that have to be better structurally when they don’t have the puck.
Perhaps a fully healthy group of defencemen, however, will help. Jake Muzzin has been sharp through camp after recovering from a broken hand, while Morgan Rielly got into just one game before the pause after coming back from a broken foot. And wouldn’t it be nice for Tyson Barrie to play to his potential?
Columbus has a stud in Seth Jones and a nice touch of offence from Zach Werenski, who was the lone NHL defenceman to score 20 goals during the regular season. It’s a solid six on the Jackets blue line and collectively was a factor as Columbus put the clamps down before the pause. Like the Leafs, the Jackets are healthy on the back end.
Edge: Columbus
Forwards
Oliver Bjorkstrand led Columbus with 21 goals before the pause. That was enough for Zach Hyman to finish fourth among Leafs, following Auston Matthews (47 goals), William Nylander (31) and John Tavares (26). Then there’s that Mitch Marner fellow.
The Leafs have the firepower and the presence of Ilya Mikheyev, who had an excellent camp after recovering from a lacerated wrist. Rookie Nick Robertson isn’t here just to fill a roster spot. Experience on the fourth line in Kyle Clifford and Jason Spezza should be a benefit.
What the Jackets don’t have in power, they have in work ethic and determination. It’s a group that will make life hell for the Leafs defence, to the point that (they hope) some goals will result off the forecheck. Veterans Nick Foligno, Boone Jenner and Cam Atkinson will help keep the Leafs honest, while centre Pierre-Luc Dubois will have to be at his best, whether it’s against Matthews or Tavares.
Edge: Toronto
Coaching
Just 11 men in NHL history have coached in more games than the 1,327 in which John Tortorella has stood behind the bench. And in some of those games with Tampa Bay, Tortorella could look down and see Sheldon Keefe waiting for his next shift.
Keefe doesn’t have the experience that his former coach possesses, but he’s not going to be in over his head. The 39-year-old has a Calder Cup championship on his resume and demonstrated in his initial 47 games as the Leafs’ coach after taking over from Mike Babcock that he can adapt quickly when it’s required.
Both men will have their respective clubs completely prepared. Tortorella, who has coached in 110 NHL playoff games, is in the running for the Jack Adams Award after getting an injury-plagued, no-stars roster to the post-season.
Edge: Columbus
Special teams
The Leafs’ No. 1 power-play unit of Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander and Barrie is the envy of most teams across the NHL. Neither club beat a path to the penalty box in ’19-’20. The Jackets were the least-penalized team, going shorthanded 169 times, while the Leafs were shorthanded 193 times.
Jones and Jenner drive a penalty-killing unit that finished in the top 12. The Leafs, meanwhile, were up and down on the PK.
Edge: Toronto
BY THE NUMBERS (2019-20 REGULAR SEASON)
Record
Toronto: 70 GP, 36-25-9, 81 points, .579%
Columbus: 70 GP, 33-22-15, 81 points, .579%
Goals for
Toronto: 238, 3rd
Columbus: 180, 28th
Goals against
Toronto: 227, 27th
Columbus: 187, 3rd
Power play
Toronto: 23.1%, 6th
Columbus: 16.4%, 27th
Penalty kill
Toronto: 77.7%, 21st
Columbus: 81.7%, 12th
Shots for
Toronto: 32.9, 6th
Columbus: 32.5, 8th
Shots against
Toronto: 31.9, 19th
Columbus: 29.9, 7th
2019-20 MEETINGS
Oct. 4 at Columbus
Maple Leafs 4, Blue Jackets 1
Mitch Marner scored his first two goals of the season and Morgan Rielly had three assists as the Leafs won their first road game. Goals by Marner and Auston Matthews in the third period clinched the win for Toronto. Frederik Andersen made 28 saves, while Joonas Korpisalo made 25 saves for the Blue Jackets.
Oct. 21 at Toronto
Blue Jackets 4, Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Columbus had a 2-0 lead on goals by Riley Nash and Pierre-Luc Dubois before the game was six minutes old, but Toronto tied the game with goals from Kasperi Kapanen and Auston Matthews heading into the first intermission. A goal by William Nylander late in the second gave Toronto a 3-2 lead; Alexander Wennberg scored the tying goal midway through the third. Gustav Nyqvist beat Frederik Andersen at 1:57 of overtime on a penalty shot, the free attempt coming after Nyquist was hooked by Mitch Marner.
March 21 at Toronto
Cancelled
LINEUPS
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
FORWARDS
William Nylander-Auston Matthews-Zach Hyman
Ilya Mikheyev-John Tavares- Mitch Marner
Nick Robertson-Alex Kerfoot-Kasperi Kapanen
Kyle Clifford-Frederik Gauthier-Jason Spezza
Pierre Engvall
DEFENCE
Jake Muzzin-Justin Holl
Morgan Rielly- Cody Ceci
Travis Dermott-Tyson Barrie
Rasmus Sandin-Martin Marincin
GOALTENDERS
Frederik Andersen
Jack Campbell
Injuries: LW Andreas Johnsson (knee).
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
FORWARDS
Nick Foligno-Alexander Wennberg-Cam Atkinson
Alexandre Texier-Pierre-Luc Dubois-Oliver Bjorkstrand
Gustav Nyquist-Boone Jenner-Liam Foudy
Eric Robinson-Riley Nash-Emil Bemstrom
DEFENCE
Zach Werenski-Seth Jones
Vladislav Gavrikov-David Savard
Ryan Murray-Dean Kukan
Scott Harrington-Markus Nutivaara
GOALTENDERS
Joonas Korpisalo
Elvis Merzlikins
Injuries: C Brandon Dubinsky (wrist), RW Josh Anderson (shoulder).
Copyright Postmedia Network Inc., 2020