There’s a gap in the data underlying the National Hockey League’s latest round of COVID-19 testing, but one epidemiologist says there’s still cause for cautious optimism in the fact that just six per cent of players tested over the past week-plus have the novel coronavirus.
On Monday, the NHL announced it has tested at least 50 more players for COVID-19 since its initial round of testing earlier this month as part of its Phase 2 testing regime. Four of those new players tested positive and are now self-isolating.
A week ago, the league announced that 11 players had tested positive for COVID-19, out of an initial batch of players who were taking part in Phase 2 of the NHL’s reopening.
Asked why the NHL’s latest number was inexact, Gary Meagher, the NHL’s executive vice-president, communications, explained in an email that the imprecise figure was because “player numbers change every day.”
“We will likely be able to provide more specific numbers at the end of Phase 2,” he said.
The Vancouver Canucks won’t say if they have tested any of their own players yet, but if they haven’t, they certainly will be doing so soon as the team confirmed Monday that the ice is back in at Rogers Arena and the team’s training facilities are available for use by their players under Phase 2 of the return-to-play protocols beginning Tuesday.
Under the Phase 2 protocol, players are permitted to skate and work out at team facilities while following physical distancing rules. They are also regularly tested for COVID-19.
Dr. Zach Binney, an epidemiologist at Emory University in Atlanta who also writes about sports injuries for Football Outsiders, says the rates of infection aren’t unexpected and that there’s actually a potentially positive sign in the growth of the league’s infection rate.
He called the original 11 positive tests over the initial 10-day period “a good baseline.”
“The NBA found very similar results,” he said. The fact that there doesn’t appear to have been a surge in the second round of tests is a (conditional) good sign.
“In the second (window) we saw four additional cases. That’s great. That’s exactly what I would expect if the protocols were being followed as intended,” he said.
The NHL also announced that about 200 players have been tested in the community.
Still, the broader context suggests the NHL’s players or their infection rates likely aren’t out of the norm.
“The 11 positive tests from outside the Phase 2 protocol are a little concerning, but it’s a little hard because we don’t know the denominator,” he said. “If 500 is the denominator, then that’s not shocking at all — that’s 2.2 per cent.”
(With 250 players having been officially tested by the NHL, that leaves around 500 players untested by the league.)
Even if there are a few other players who have the virus but who haven’t been tested, the data still wouldn’t be out of whack with the group of players who have been officially tested.
Most NHLers have travelled to their off-season homes in Canada or Europe, but there are still a good number of players who are in the United States.
“With the sheer amount of virus that you have in the U.S. in particular, it does not shock me that we would find people getting the virus going about their daily life,” he said.
As for Binney’s big caveat in this story: There is still a gap in the NHL’s data that leaves some doubt. We don’t know the distribution of where the team-tested 15 positive players are.
If they’re spread pretty out evenly amongst the teams, that’s OK, Binney said.
“If it’s five cases on three teams, I’m much more concerned,” he said.
And it would be worrying if there have been a rapid series of positives.
Still, Binney admitted to extremely cautious optimism. There are a lot of examples of sports leagues taking big, unnecessary risks. So far, he’s not seeing that in the NHL.
“If there’s a chance to be doom and gloom I’d take it, but I’m not here to do that today. Though there is still that caveat,” he said.
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