Elections are a numbers game — literally.
They are the art of convincing voters that, in times of wealth or poverty, that one party deserves enough votes to control government.
Right now, it looks like the provincial Liberals are preparing to try and argue that exact point and take this province to the polls soon.
But while elections may centre on the number of votes politicians get, the situation in this province involves a different set of numbers based on population, pandemics, paycheques and pensions.
Even without the extra weight of the pandemic, the province was in a difficult financial spot. Payments for Muskrat Falls started to come due even though the project is not expected to be fully operational until next fall, at the earliest, and the province has continually paid out more for services than it collects in revenues.
Looking at the province’s fiscal picture, there’s a startling intersection of concerns: high unemployment, a low birth rate, difficulty in retaining immigrants, and steep declines in one of our main sources of wealth in recent years — offshore oil revenue — are leaving the province with fewer and fewer options.
An election right now would be set against a strange backdrop: the government has set up a commission to change the province’s financial direction, but hasn’t said what options would be on the table.
Shrinking revenues and increased health-care costs for an aging population — an aging population which also brings diminished incomes as people transition to pensions (if they’re lucky enough to have one), meaning smaller amounts are flowing in from taxation.
Add to that the costs of the pandemic potentially straining the health system, industry sectors wanting financial support and lower income tax revenues, and options for solutions are slim.
An election right now would be set against a strange backdrop: the government has set up a commission to change the province’s financial direction, but hasn’t said what options would be on the table. Vote — for something.
But that’s not even the only great unknown.
There is only one financial issue in the province that is large enough to be specifically singled out in the province’s Public Accounts by the province’s financial watchdog, the auditor general.
Here’s the auditor general’s warning: “I draw attention to government’s commitment to ensure that electricity rates in this province are not impacted by the Muskrat Falls project. Government has not finalized specific strategies for its rate mitigation plan. Implementation of this plan may have a significant impact on the province’s consolidated summary financial statements in coming years.”
Translation?
The fiscal wheels might be about to fall off.
If the provincial Liberals do call an early election, they should have to answer some very specific questions, because they have a responsibility to tell voters exactly what it is they’re voting for.
Asking people to vote in the middle of a major review of the province’s spending — without knowing what that review entails — while also failing to outline how electricity price mitigation will work, is a mug’s game.
