CHARLOTTETOWN, P.E.I. — In a couple of days, you’ll know the result of the provincial election in New Brunswick on Monday night.
More important, Dennis King will know the result. And what the premier sees happening on the other side of the Confederation Bridge may have a major impact on what happens here in the next few months.
And we can thank Liberal (now ex-) MLA Robert Mitchell for that.
That’s because on Sept. 3 he quietly posted a note on Twitter.
“Today I made the decision to step down as MLA for the district of Charlottetown-Winsloe. It has been both an honor and a privilege to be the provincial government representative for this district and the previous district of Charlottetown-Sherwood for the past 13 plus years.”
He was a bit more eloquent on Facebook – where he wasn’t facing a 280-character limit for a post. There he included lots of thank yous to the people in the district, the people there who did work for the party, to his colleagues and to his family.
But the news was in the first post.
Politics is back – in a big way – in P.E.I. Sure there’s a pandemic. Sure that complicates running a byelection, never mind a provincial election. But there’s a seat up for grabs.
And should the ruling Progressive Conservatives call and win that byelection, they’ll have 14 seats. That’s a majority government, sure by the narrowest of margins – one seat – but it’s still a majority.
And then there’s no need to think about an election until they’ve had a full four-year run at the top of the pile. Never mind the usual minority government reality – an election after 18 months to two years. Win Mitchell’s seat and it’s the full meal deal.
And should Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs win in New Brunswick – in an election clearly called just because he thought he could win it and end his minority straitjacket, despite the risks Covid brings to that process – then King may be emboldened.
The byelection to replace Mitchell in District 10, Charlottetown-Winsloe, could be called for late this fall.
We saw what that might mean in the last byelection.
The Greens seemed a sure bet in District 9, Charlottetown–Hillsborough Park, before a tragedy forced the vote there to be deferred. By the time it was held months later, the tide had turned.
Progressive Conservative candidate Natalie Jameson won with 43.7 per cent of the vote, 1,080 votes. The new Green Party candidate, John Andrew, slid back into the back, coming second with 709.
Voters in byelections often like to go with the known winner, the party in power. The logic is obvious. You want to get the goodies, however you define goodies, and the odds look much better of getting what you want if you’re on the government side.
Given the PCs lack of representation in urban P.E.I. and until the last byelection in Charlottetown in particular, the right candidate just might end up at the cabinet table at some point.
That’s what happened to Jameson, also known – as of Feb. 1 – as the Minister of Environment, Water and Climate Change, Minister responsible for the Status of Women and Minister responsible for Charlottetown
That’s an even better place to be if you’re expected to deliver goodies.
