Just prior to the Oct. 21 federal election, Canada’s then-ambassador to the United States, David MacNaughton, unexpectedly submitted his resignation letter. His successor has not yet been named, but there are no shortage of qualified candidates.
One of those names at or near the top of the list is former interim Conservative Party leader Rona Ambrose. For a variety of reasons, she would certainly be an inspired choice.
Indeed, Canada has never had a female ambassador in Washington that I can recall. Nor do I ever remember a candidate with such close ties to the party of the current Official Opposition being considered as the next Canadian envoy.
Ambrose has deep roots and connections in Alberta. Her appointment would also send another important signal to those clamouring for action and respect in the West. Moreover, she knows the energy and trade files well and thus could be a valuable voice for Trudeau to hear from on matters involving Western Canada.
However, I’m sure that Ambrose is thinking about — should a job offer be made — what precisely is in store for her. What awaits her, of course, is having to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump’s America. And as many other countries have discovered, that is no easy chore.
In many ways, it’s frequently a no-win situation for whoever occupies the Washington post. How exactly do you work with a White House that seems to be engulfed in total chaos almost every day? Couple that with the fact that what Trump says on Monday is often different from what he says on Tuesday and Wednesday. And there’s no telling what you might hear from the president’s mouth on Thursday and Friday.
Trump has recently gone after his supposed friends in France (Emmanuel Macron) and Brazil (Jair Bolsonaro) by threatening trade sanctions because he didn’t get his way. Furthermore, no one has seen the president turn on him more quickly than Justin Trudeau himself after Trump took offence to some harmless pushback comments he made at the 2018 G-7 Summit in Quebec.
At the recent NATO Summit in London, Trump went on about Canada’s low defence spending within the ranks of the 29-nation Western alliance. He would like us to add another $10 billion or so to our existing military outlays — rising to some $33 billion annually.
But if countries have learned anything about engaging with the Trump administration, it’s that it doesn’t pay to be nice or flattering to The Donald. As a purely transactional president, it’s basically a one-way street named “Trump’s Way.” That reality alone always makes it especially challenging for Canada’s top diplomat in Washington.
Ambrose does have the experience, though, of working closely with other Canadian officials on the negotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). She is also presently affiliated as a global fellow with the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington. So she’s obviously bright and talented, a smooth and skilful operator and someone who has already made some crucial contacts in Washington — both inside and outside the U.S. administration.
Of course, she might just have her sights squarely focused on another high-profile job — namely, that of Conservative Party leader. It’s not vacant yet, but the drip, drip of criticism that is coming Andrew Scheer’s way is definitely not a good sign. It’s starting to look like the Conservative party “backroom boys” are looking seriously at a post-Scheer period that would situate the party in a stronger position to win the next federal election.
It’s hard to imagine that Scheer can survive until the party leadership review in April 2020. It’s equally impossible to think that he could garner the support of two-thirds of the party membership to hang on to his present job.
When Scheer eventually does falter, Ambrose probably wants to be ready to mount a spirited challenge. But she can’t effectively do that as Canada’s next ambassador to the U.S. in Washington.
On the other hand, the federal Liberals are surely no mere slouches. They have, I’m convinced, already gamed this out. By having Ambrose safely tucked away south of the border, they have succeeded in taking her name off the prospective list for the Conservative Party leadership.
Needless to say, there is absolutely no way that the Trudeau Liberals would want to face Ambrose in the next election campaign. They know that there’s a pretty good chance that she could become only the second woman to hold the position of Canadian prime minister. So let’s be honest: prime minister trumps ambassador any day of the week.
Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.
