It came as no real surprise on Wednesday that slavish Republican senators voted to acquit embattled U.S. President Donald Trump on the two articles of impeachment (abuse of power and obstruction of Congress). It was really never in doubt; but not because of any great love or admiration on the part of Republican members for the president.
In fact, not a single House Republican voted in favour of initially authorizing the impeachment investigation in September, nor voted in favour of the two impeachment charges. At every opportunity, and especially in House committee hearings and on the floor of the Senate, Republicans fiercely defended the president’s actions.
But when you consider all the evidence that the Democrats mustered against Trump, it’s hard to imagine why anyone could think that his conduct was “perfect.” Yet only one Republican senator, Mitt Romney of Utah, was willing to break with Trump. Why did the rest of these senators lack the political courage to do the right thing?
Speaking of former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, he had his own particular spin on why Republicans, in general, avoided criticizing Trump. He maintained that they feared losing control of the Senate or even the White House to the likes of Democratic presidential challenger Senator Elizabeth Warren. According to Romney, “people … genuinely believe, as I do, that conservative principles are better for our country and for the working people of our country than liberal principles and that if Elizabeth Warren were to become president, for instance, or if we were to lose the Senate, that it would not be good for the American people."
It may be that the Republican conference believed firmly that voting to remove a sitting U.S. president would have hurt the chances of electing or re-electing more Republicans in the November elections. Simply put, in order to ensure the survival and success of the Republican party —and to keep the dreaded Democrats at bay — they had to hold their noses and stick with Trump.
Let’s be honest, though: fear is actually a more powerful political motivator. And no Republicans in Congress were anxious to lose their high-profile jobs.
Clearly, this was an obvious case of Senate Republicans not wanting to find themselves on the wrong side of the “Trumpinator,” who has the backing of almost 90 per cent of Republican voters. So they grudgingly protected him because they’d do just about anything to avoid a Trumpian backlash. As one close adviser to Trump sternly warned the senators: “Vote against the president and your head will be on a pike.”
Can you picture how Trump will react now that Romney dared to vote to convict on the first article (and not the second)? Get ready for a ferocious Twitter storm to come Romney’s way.
Similarly, when asked about the lack of criticism by Republicans directed against Trump, former Senator Jeff Flake from Arizona (who didn’t reoffer in light of an expected primary challenger) observed pointedly: “Well, because they want to keep their jobs, and the president is extremely popular among Republican primary voters.”
In other words, the quickest way for a sitting Republican in Congress to be “primaried” (or to face a contender to be the Republican spear-carrier for their district or Senate seat) is to speak ill of The Donald. And even if they survived a primary challenge, they’d have a difficult time securing re-election if Trump were constantly bad-mouthing them.
The cost in terms of political campaign fundraising — the grease that makes the U.S. polity work — would also be devastating. Donor support would most assuredly dry up if a Republican member were to cross Trump on something as critical as removal from office.
In short, if you don’t exhibit total fealty to the president, then you have effectively committed political suicide. By openly defying Trump, those Republicans would risk being ostracized by the party and thus be certain to diminish significantly any hope that they might have of seeking, or maintaining, a political career under the Republican banner.
Additionally, had any Republicans stepped out of line, GOP leaders in both the House and Senate chambers — at Trump’s ferocious behest — would have severely punished them for challenging the king. So what choices did Republicans actually have?
The sad reality is that most Republicans had already made their minds up before the impeachment trial even began. In the final analysis, it was always going to be thus.
Republican senators just didn’t want to be trashed on Fox News, pegged with a particularly damaging Twitter nickname by the president, or have Trump’s base turn against them in the next election cycle. We all know that Trump’s White House is more akin to a mafia syndicate — extorting allegiance to the mob, engaging in illicit and criminal behaviour and threatening to kneecap anyone who is disloyal to the Don. The message from the top is abundantly clear: proceed independently at your own political and personal risk.
Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.
