Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is ready to tear a page from Quebec’s playbook. A referendum will ask whether Alberta should unilaterally withdraw participation from CCP. Hey! If Quebec already has their own plan – why not Alberta? Another referendum on EI is sure to follow.
An Alberta exit would force the rest of Canada to shoulder dramatic increases in CCP contributions together with further hikes in HST. Albertans would enjoy considerable tax reductions. Meanwhile, COVID-19’s economic repercussions will exacerbate Ottawa’s revenue reductions even further, likely requiring dramatic cuts to benefits.
Albertans are prepared to provide their premier this bargaining chip to right egregious wrongs. Blocked pipeline access to both the east and west coasts have limited Alberta to an American market, which extorts huge discounts, slashing thereby Alberta’s revenue. To add insult to injury, Quebec’s very profitable refineries rely on pipelines from Western Canada. To make matters even worse, Alberta confronts a crippling deficit, even while Quebec enjoys the prospect of five more years of surplus budgets thanks to equalization. Nonetheless, British Columbia and Quebec still expect continued transfer payments from Alberta. No wonder Albertan heads are exploding!
None of this was supposed to happen. When the gap between richer and poorer provinces shrank, equalization payments were supposed to fall, as well. The 2009 rule changes did not anticipate COVID-19. Measures designed to control costs are instead driving costs.
Canada’s Supreme Court just handed Ottawa the means to resolve this crisis. The SOC has unanimously declared that provincial jurisdictions cannot regulate the flow of heavy oil across provincial borders. Our prime minister’s preferred pretense of “consensus building” is no longer an option. Alberta can still be mollified if rules are changed and pipelines are built. But, that would require some federal leadership.
Thomas Mueller,
Saint John
