CHARLOTTETOWN, P.E.I. — Both the federal Liberal and the Island’s Progressive Conservative movers and shakers will be watching the results of the New Brunswick provincial election on Sept. 14 with a great deal of interest.
And not just to see who gets the most seats. Both parties are contemplating calling fall elections of their own. They will be more than a little interested in how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the vote.
Like N.B. Premier Blaine Higgs, both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier Dennis King lead minority governments, and, also like Premier Higgs, both have enjoyed strong support for the way they have handled things during the pandemic.
So both will be watching closely to see if Premier Higgs can translate that support into seats, enough seats to form a majority government.
They’ll be looking to see what role the pandemic played. Was the turnout higher or lower than a regular election? Were there more mail-in ballots than normal? How did the various parties reach out to voters when it wasn’t possible to hold rallies, or campaign door-to-door? How much advertising did they do in traditional media or did they rely more on social media to reach voters?
While neither Justin Trudeau or Dennis King are in any danger of the opposition parties forcing an election, the strong support they are enjoying these days may not be there next year when they will have some tough decisions to make. They can’t just keep adding millions and millions to the deficit. Tough decisions are easier to make with a majority government.
With the resignation of Robert Mitchell from the Island’s legislature, the opposition parties don’t have enough votes to defeat the government. But, Premier King must call a byelection to fill the seat by next March. And as the old saying goes, why wait for spring, do it now.
The latest Narrative Research poll shows the Progressive Conservatives with support from 48 per cent of those polled compared with 25 per cent for the Greens and 23 per cent for the Liberals.
That same polls shows that 45 per cent of Islanders prefer Dennis King as premier. Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker is the choice of 26 per cent, followed by Liberal leader Sonny Gallant (nine per cent) and former NDP leader Joe Byrne (four per cent).
Robert Mitchell’s resignation shouldn’t come as any great surprise. He’s been an MLA for 13 years, and as a former cabinet minister, adjusting to life on the opposition benches wouldn’t have been easy.
There are very few Island politicians who have gone from cabinet to the opposition and stayed around long enough to be re-elected to government. Those that do are often considered ‘old-school’ by the new leader and are bypassed when the new cabinet is formed. This happened to veteran MLA Bob Campbell from West Prince. He was a cabinet minister in the 1970s, but when the Liberals formed the government in 1986, he was again elected as an MLA, but didn’t get into the cabinet.
With the political momentum the Tories are experiencing, it would be a mistake just to hold a byelection to get a one seat majority, when a general election could significantly increase their numbers.
The Liberals, like all defeated government members, are in disarray. They have yet to hold a leadership convention. There’s a feeling they are going to be out of office for at least a term or two. These days there is little or no enthusiasm in the Liberal ranks.
The Greens are in better shape. Most of them are new to the legislature and enjoying their role as legislators. But, if the rumours are right, where they are not doing a good job is in their role as constituency politicians, which is more important in Island politics.
Watch what happens in New Brunswick in nine days. If the voters give Blaine Higgs a majority, Dennis King may seek his own majority before the snow flies.
Alan Holman is a freelance journalist living in Charlottetown.
