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EDITORIAL: Watch the numbers

The coronavirus death toll in Iran has surpassed 19,000 with a spike in new cases, which many jurisdictions are experiencing. — Reuters file photo

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In Manitoba, COVID-19 cases have been on the rise again. A few days ago, there were 114 new cases in just five days.

In Alberta, the past weekend saw five deaths and 257 new cases.

British Columbia? Forty-six new cases on Tuesday alone.

Ontario, meanwhile, had 33 new cases on Tuesday, the lowest number since the middle of March, and Quebec was showing only a slight increase, with 91 new cases on the same day.

What do we take from it all?

For the rest of the world, the message is a simple one, and one that public professionals have been stressing since the beginning of the pandemic: this pandemic is not going to simply vanish into the air.

Well, look a little more broadly.

After Spain brought the first wave of infections close to under control, infections in that country are suddenly skyrocketing again, with an average of 4,973 new cases every day over a span of seven days ending this week. There are now 500 outbreak clusters in the country — a country which was recognized as having one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe.

But a quick reopening of the economy has led to a boom in cases, both related to tourism and camps for seasonal farm workers.

Remember the disaster the virus brought to Italy? Well, that country also managed to bring the virus under control, only to see a reopening of travel bring with it a single-day increase of 38 per cent in cases late last week, despite the fact it has only gradually opened its economy. (Let’s just leave the United States out of this discussion; that country has become the world’s outlier in COVID-19 growth, with one-quarter of the world’s cases and a regular daily death toll of over 1,000 people.)

For the rest of the world, the message is a simple one, and one that public professionals have been stressing since the beginning of the pandemic: this pandemic is not going to simply vanish into the air.

At first, there was plenty of fear about the progression of the virus. Lockdowns came quickly, and re-openings — in Canada at least — have been slow and science-based.

The problem is, there are only so many scientists, and only so many people listening to science.

A population that grudgingly accepted stiff lockdown protocols is now forgetting or putting aside ideas like masks and physical distancing.

But watch the numbers: specifically, watch the change in the numbers of cases in Canada, and watch what types of behaviour those clusters of cases are related to. Already, we’ve seen clusters in cramped accommodations for farm workers, in close quarters in meat processing plants, and in situations where people have thrown caution to the wind to do things like hold house parties or other get-togethers.

Public health experts have been clear that virus outbreaks will come in pulses and will have to be beaten back with strict controls.

Vigilance now stops pain later. If the numbers start rising again, we’ll only be able to blame ourselves.

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