The fallout continues from James Aylward’s sudden resignation as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of P.E.I. Was it done to give the party sufficient time to hold a condensed leadership race before an expected spring election? The party had to make its move because of tight timelines - despite the approach of the fall sitting of the legislature.
It’s unlikely an election will be held before mid-April or early May – more than six months away. It should give the party enough time to recruit potential candidates and hold a convention – barely. There is certainly no time to waste before the new leader heads right into an election campaign. The PC caucus met Tuesday morning and the provincial executive gathered last night to plot strategy.
Mr. Aylward’s convention win last October was supposed to finally turn the page on recent leadership upheavals, with a united party emerging to take on Premier Wade MacLauchlan. But Mr. Aylward failed to gain traction or connect with Islanders, allowing the Greens to emerge as the alternative to the Liberals. It was a disappointing result for both the PC party and leader this week.
It’s much too early to write off the PCs just yet and hand over succession to the throne to a Green party with two MLAs, a largely unknown platform, untested candidates and a fledgling provincial party apparatus. Still, Green party polling numbers are impressive and sustained. They cannot be dismissed as a fringe third party any longer. If the polls hold, they must be considered legitimate contenders to govern.
Consider another PC scenario. The party could have an heir apparent waiting in the wings for another coronation – much like what the Liberals did with Wade MacLauchlan after Robert Ghiz’s stunning resignation in November 2014. A likely PC hopeful coming from inside caucus is Sidney MacEwen, who took a pass on the leadership last year because of family and work commitments. Dennis King, the regular PC voice on CBC radio’s political panel, has developed a following, especially among younger voters. There are others, such as lawyer Margaret Anne Walsh.
Poor polls are credited with the PC executive decision to gamble on selecting a new leader just before the coming campaign, with the party polling at 20 per cent; while Mr. Aylward was down to 16 per cent among party leaders. The unknown is how will Mr. Aylward’s departure play with his supporters across the Island? They will feel the leader never got the chance he deserved, and at this point, is there anyone better to lead the party?
Did the PCs just gamble and lose; or is there a leader out there able to take the party back to power next spring - building on the momentum from a convention heading into an election? But before that, Mr. Aylward will have to put his disappointment aside and present a vigorous opposition in the legislature this fall to help persuade Islanders the party is ready to govern – just not under the current leader.
