With one week remaining until the current extension of the border closure between Canada and the United States expires, people from both countries are bracing themselves for what's to come.
A poll published Thursday by Narrative Research, a company based in Halifax, suggests that 70 per cent of Canadians are against reopening the Canada-U.S. borders. The poll, which was conducted online, included 1,230 Canadians from across the country who are 18 years or older.
"That's not surprising, given the number of cases and what's happening in the U.S.," said Margaret Chapman, the chief operating officer at Narrative Research.
In the United States, the pandemic continues to ravage through the country, with more than 30,000 new COVID-19 cases reported on Sunday. On the same day, there were a little over 500 cases reported in Canada. As of Sunday, the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States is about 46 times the number in Canada.
Opposition to reopening was strongest in Atlantic Canada, with close to 80 per cent of participants being against the idea.
"People ... might attribute the low case numbers in Atlantic Canada to the borders being closed and want it to stay that way," said Chapman.
About three-quarters of participants who identified as female and three-quarters of those born between 1946 and 1964 were against opening borders. All provinces were strongly in opposition except for Quebec, where participants were almost equally divided, with 53 per cent of participants supporting reopening and 47 per cent opposing it.
Atlantic Canadians warming up to bursting bubble
The poll also found that 60 per cent of participants across Canada mostly or completely support reopening all provincial and territorial borders and lifting the requirement to self-isolate when travelling within the country.
Participants in Atlantic Canada were less enthusiastic about the idea. About a half were for lifting the restrictions and the other half were against.
Still, the results indicate Atlantic Canadians are warming up to reopening borders with other provinces and with the United States.
In a survey published by Narrative Research in August, 95 per cent of Atlantic Canadians were against reopening borders with the south and three-quarters were against breaking the Atlantic bubble.
Chapman said a lot of the participants reported being moderately against reopening and she expects those were the people who changed their mind.
She added that with schools and universities opening this month, more people started to see the need for travel.
"I think what's happened in the last few weeks is there has been more discussion ... which may have started to shift some of the opinions that were hanging in the middle."
Vaccines mostly not on people's minds
Across Canada, participants who support the opening of the U.S. border were more likely than those who oppose it to also support opening provincial and territorial borders within the country.
Participants were also asked what it would take to support opening the borders.
In response, people were split between wanting to see a consistent low number of COVID-19 cases and wanting to see a sustained period of two weeks without new cases.
"It was an open-ended question ... and there were lots of answers mentioned, but these are the main ones," said Chapman. "I think people are looking for signals that things are under control."
Very few people mentioned the development of a vaccine.
"I think there's a realization that a vaccine is a ways off and that we may need to open borders before the vaccine is available," she said.
Methodology: This survey was conducted online on August 20-22, 2020, with 1,230 Canadians 18 years of age or older,from the Logit Group’s Canadian Omnibus. Fielding every month, the Logit Group’s COVID-19 Omnibus surveys Canadians to ask their opinions and behaviours related to topical issues. Results were analyzed by Narrative Research. Data was weighted based on the 2016 Census, by gender, age, and region to reflect these population characteristics in each province. As a non-probability sample (i.e., a panel sample where residents have joined a panel to share their opinions), and in accordance with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards, a margin of error is not applied.
Nebal Snan is a local journalism initiative reporter, a position funded by the federal government.
