Nova Scotia’s next premier will have to deal with the shadow of Stephen McNeil as he puts together a new cabinet and decides on the Liberal party’s direction, political observers say.
“This is a weird one,” referring to Iain Rankin replacing a premier who’s leaving with high public support amid a high profile during the COVID-19 pandemic, said Lori Turnbull, director of Dalhousie University’s School of Public Administration and an associate professor of political science.
“And now in comes someone who has experience and who is inside the party, who was a cabinet minister. … One question is, what is he going to inherit from Stephen McNeil? Are people going to be expecting him to be answering questions for the McNeil government or are people going to kind of see him as a fresh new perspective? And that’s a big decision he has to make too, as to how he wants to play that.”
Rankin and his cabinet will be sworn in by Lt.-Gov. Arthur LeBlanc at 10 a.m. on Tuesday.
Delorey, Kousoulis shoe-ins
As for what that cabinet will look like, one certainty is that Randy Delorey and Labi Kousoulis, Rankin’s competitors in the Liberal leadership race, will be at the table, Turnbull said.
“He’s gotta do that. I think he’s also got to create as balanced and inclusive a cabinet as he can. He has to acknowledge that he’s losing some of that front-bench strength in that ministers have indicated they’re not going to reoffer.”
Finance Minister and Deputy Premier Karen Casey has said she’s leaving politics along with Health Minister Leo Glavine, Environment Minister Gordon Wilson, former cabinet minister Margaret Miller and backbencher Bill Horne.
Tom Urbaniak, a political science professor at Cape Breton University, agreed that Kousoulis and Delorey will “very likely” be part of Rankin’s cabinet.
“Kousoulis will likely be in a major portfolio, maybe even Finance as a nod to the 'business Liberals' wing of the party,” Urbaniak said in an email. “There will be a gesture here toward party unity, as Kousoulis came close to winning.”
Urbaniak said Rankin doesn't have a lot of flexibility when it comes to choosing his ministers.
“There are 26 Liberal MLAs – and the cabinet will probably have 13 to 15 MLAs. He would prefer not to include in the cabinet those MLAs who have announced they won't be re-offering in the next election. He wants to profile and give an advantage to incumbents who are re-offering.”
Regional, gender balance
But he might not have a choice, Urbaniak wrote, “So I wouldn't be surprised if one or two retiring MLAs (eg. Karen Casey or Geoff MacLellan) still end up in the cabinet. Keeping MacLellan in cabinet would allow Rankin to show that he still has two ministers in Cape Breton, where the Liberals are at real risk of emerging from the next election with zero seats.”
Urbaniak also predicted that Derek Mombourquette, whose portfolios include Mines and Energy and Lands and Forestry, will be back in a senior cabinet position, as will Education Minister Zach Churchill.
He also expects to see Brendan Maguire, who is not currently a minister and who endorsed Rankin, in the cabinet, as well as Speaker Kevin Murphy.
There are currently five women in the Liberal cabinet – Casey, Kelly Regan, Lena Metlege Diab, Patricia Arab and Suzanne Lohnes-Croft – but given the all-male leadership race, Urbaniak said he wouldn’t be surprised to see a woman continue in the deputy premier position.
Force for renewal
Turnbull, who is the co-author of the prize-winning book Democratizing the Constitution: Reforming Responsible Government, said Rankin will have to grapple with the unprecedented economic effects of the pandemic while trying to prevent COVID-19 from defining his leadership. And given his pro-environment stance, she said he’ll have to work to convince the business community he’s on its side.
She also expects Rankin will be a more collaborative and less of a top-down leader than McNeil.
“From what I’ve heard, he did a really good job of connecting with people through the campaign when he phoned them,” Turnbull said, noting that the pandemic turned the usual handshake politicking to an online and telephone event.
“I think one of the ways he was successful was – I hear this anyway – through these conversations with people he talked to, making an impression on them about how he feels the party should go forward. “He’s acknowledged the fact that … there were no women in the race is a problem and we’ll just have to deal with that.
“I think it’s possible that he’s this kind of force for renewal.”
