A third of Nova Scotians are unable to muster any opinion on which of the five candidates for the Conservative leadership they would favour as premier, and another two-in-10 cast a plague on all five of their houses.
That leaves roughly half of the 400 random adult Nova Scotians polled by Corporate Research Associates (CRA) during the last couple of weeks in August with a preference, and Cecil Clarke’s name recognition and strong regional support in Cape Breton put him on top. Clarke’s the preferred “premier” of almost two-in-10 of those polled.
As the Tory leadership race stretches into its ninth month with one still to go, the number of Nova Scotians who say they wouldn’t support any of the five candidates’ bid to be premier took a sharp increase, from 10 per cent just three months ago to 18 per cent in the most recent poll.
Conservatives will tell you the acrimonious leadership contest may be taking a toll and any damage is reparable, while Liberals and New Democrats will take some comfort in the fact that the more Nova Scotians see of the Tory field, the less they like it.
As if on cue Monday, more bad blood spilled out of the leadership, after the campaign of perceived front-runner and Pictou East MLA Tim Houston was fined for a sixth breach of the rules.
Of the other candidates, Julie Chaisson and Houston are supported by about 10 per cent of those polled, while Kings North MLA John Lohr and Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin, who represents Cumberland North in the legislature, were each favoured by six per cent.
Clarke’s held the lead in the Corporate Research Associates’ quarterly poll since the firm started tracking broad general support for Tory leadership candidates back in February, although over those nine months his support slipped from 26 per cent in February to the current 19 per cent.
It would be shocking if anyone other than Clarke topped this survey. He’s been mayor of the Cape Breton Regional Municipality for a half-dozen years, and before that he sat in the legislature for a decade, including cabinet stints in Justice, Energy and Development. He also served as Speaker of the House.
As a result, Clarke has better name recognition than the three sitting MLAs in the race or Chaisson, who ran unsuccessfully for the Tories in Chester St. Margarets in 2017.
Clarke’s camp has plugged the CRA poll numbers to Tories in the past, noting that their candidate is the preferred premier of more Nova Scotians than any of his opponents. They were at it again, Monday, noting that this latest poll shows their man is still first choice, and noting that Houston was third. Houston and Chaisson are virtually tied at nine and 10 per cent respectively, well within the poll’s margin of error.
Houston was called out by his caucus colleague Lohr on Monday for breaching campaign finance rules.
“This violation of the rules is the most serious yet, with Tim Houston himself participating in a campaign event partially funded with money that was banned from the leadership race,” Lohr charged, adding the Tory Leadership Committee fined Houston’s camp $2,500 for violating campaign rules.
The campaign finance infraction involves an unclaimed contribution of $750 to the Houston campaign. The rules stipulate that all financial contributions must be disclosed.
Lohr’s criticism of Houston was as direct and damning as any thus far in the race.
“Actions speak louder than words in this race, and these actions were a direct violation of the rules,” Lohr said in an email to party members, adding, “If we elect a leader who breaks the rules at this pace during a friendly leadership race, then what will be done when we square off against the Liberals in the next provincial election? How much trust will Nova Scotians be willing to give us?”
He called on Houston to apologize to the party membership for breaking the rules, and to explain his actions to his own camp.
With a month to go, Houston is still seen as leading with Clarke firmly in second.
Many Conservative insiders believe Houston needs to come very close to a first-ballot win if he is to emerge as leader. Insiders in the other camps say the aggressive tactics of Houston’s campaign has cost him later ballot support.
Card-carrying members of the PC party – there are more than 10,000 of them – will decide their new leader by preferential ballot or vote-in-person in Halifax on Oct. 27.
