As speculation intensifies about an early provincial election, the results of this week’s surprising political poll take on added importance.
It’s a guarantee the election won’t be in the fall of 2019 – the legislated date – because it will run against a federal vote. In normal times, one might expect the government to wait until the spring of 2020. For a first or second term government, it would likely be a no-brainer. But these are not normal times.
Waiting until then would put the government into the five-year bracket at the extreme end of its mandate. Since the Liberals are already deep into their third term – although only the first under Premier Wade MacLauchlan’s leadership - waiting would accentuate the age of the government.
Few could criticize the premier if he decides on the spring of 2019. It avoids a federal clash and comes in close to the usual four-year mandate of P.E.I. governments. But in politics, timing is everything. The economy is doing well and the budget is balanced. The government will gladly claim credit for these good times and who knows when things might slump?
So, it’s the spring of 2019 at the latest, but the odds for an earlier vote are gaining momentum. The Liberals are in a frenzy, holding founding meetings for revised districts under a new electoral map. An early call would reduce public consultations for the referendum on electoral reform. The Liberals and PCs prefer the status quo and Mixed Member Proportional Representation is not in their best interests. Going early reduces the odds of MMP winning the referendum.
It brings us back to the latest Corporate Research Associates (CRA) poll. The numbers show the Liberals have stopped the bleeding. Support has increased to a healthier 42 per cent – majority numbers in a four-party race. More than 50 per cent of Islanders are satisfied with the government.
Big numbers for the Green Party must worry the Liberals and likely shocked the Progressive Conservatives. The Greens are a solid second, the Opposition PCs have slumped to third, while the NDP leadership void has hurt their numbers.
With Green support strengthening under popular leader Peter Bevan-Baker, it adds impetus for an early election, especially with the PCs drop - an issue which leader James Aylward must obviously address.
The goal of any politician or party is to get elected. Going to the polls early would draw criticism, but likely won’t be enough to stop the Liberals from doing what’s best for premier and party.
Premier MacLauchlan is fresh from a major cabinet shuffle and has put in place the key faces who will meet the electorate, while moving to the backbenches those who don’t plan to re-offer. The Liberals gambled and won with an early vote in 2015. Going sooner than later offers a chance to blunt Green gains because that party doesn't have a province-wide organization, network or list of candidates. The PCs have a lot of work to do and the NDP party is seeking a new leader.
There is a major stumbling block for this fall. Island-wide municipal elections in early November should be enough to deter the premier and convince the Liberals to put aside selfish interests. A competing federal vote would be an enormous distraction for a provincial election, even if they were separated by several months. The same is true if the province intruded into municipal elections - it would overwhelm civic campaigning and be hugely destructive.
The Liberals will have to wait a year; or call a snap election. Stay tuned.
