The mood was sombre as the Progressive Conservative caucus gathered behind leader James Aylward early Monday afternoon. There was shocked silence, even a tear or two was shed, as Mr. Aylward regretfully announced he was stepping down as party leader.
Pressure was mounting on Mr. Aylward to step aside. The demand increased after a devastating political poll in early September put the PCs well back in third place.
PC insiders determined the party couldn't win the next election with Mr. Aylward as leader. The Liberals and Greens are running neck-and-neck in recent polls, and the Tories are being relegated to third place.
Mr. Aylward resigned before even completing a year as leader. His “Believe is Better” slogan, which carried him to victory over fellow MLA Brad Trivers in a convention last October, failed to resonate among voters.
The Tories left the convention in Brudenell full of optimism. They were early favourites to win the next election over a long-in-the-tooth Liberal government seeking a fourth-term in office, a privilege rarely granted by Island voters.
But no one told the Green party about that plan as it surged into second place in polling and finally grabbed a narrow lead earlier this month; while the Liberals stubbornly clung to surprising support – boosted by a strong economy.
Mr. Aylward failed to grow momentum from the convention. His party finished third in the Charlottetown-Parkdale byelection as PC supporters saw their hopes for a provincial win slipping through their fingers.
The Tory party then held to form – it devoured its leader. Bloodied backrooms became a party trademark following embarrassing struggles to oust Olive Crane as leader. The party has gone through six leaders – either interim or permanent – in the 11 tumultuous years since Pat Binns resigned in mid-2007. It’s one reason why skeptical Islanders have punished the party in recent elections.
Monday’s resignation is somewhat surprising since the party is coming off a productive spring session – perhaps its most effective performance in recent years. Mr. Aylward was reasonable, competent and willing to work on a non-partisan basis for the good of the province. It just wasn’t good enough.
Politics is a cruel master - timing is everything; and winning is the only thing that really matters. Polls and analytics have grown in importance – almost to the point of being the determining factor guiding party policy.
Mr. Aylward is both a realist and a loyal party man. He was persuaded that his only option – and the party’s best chance to turn its fortunes around - was for him to step down amid hopes a new leader might make “a stronger connection” with Islanders. It is intensely disappointing for Mr. Alyward who never got his chance to lead the party into an election.
The Tories must scramble to hold a leadership convention before an imminent provincial election. Is Sidney MacEwen that dynamic PC leader? Or do they go outside the fold to someone like Margaret Anne Walsh, waiting in the wings, to justify taking such a bold gamble?
