CHARLOTTETOWN, P.E.I. - The P.E.I. Green party has gained significant ground in voter support in P.E.I. jumping 15 points since October and is now in a virtual tie for second place with the Opposition Progressive Conservatives, according to the latest MQO polling results.
The Liberals remain in the lead, but support for the Liberal party dropped by six points to rest at 37 per cent.
The Green and PC parties are now at 28 and 29 per cent respectively.
Meanwhile, the undecided/no vote group remained steady at 37 per cent, up just one point since the last MQO poll in October.
This places the number of undecided/no voters in a tie with the governing Liberals.
The NDP dropped by 6 percentage points to 6 per cent this quarter.
Ratings for the leadership of Premier Wade MacLauchlan were unchanged this quarter with a mean rating of 5.3 on a 10-point scale.
RELATED: P.E.I. Liberals, premier maintain lead in latest MQO poll
RELATED: CRA poll shows P.E.I. Liberals remain the preferred party, but only by nine points
MQO’s results are based on a telephone survey of 400 Islanders held between Jan. 15 to 20 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The margin of error is higher among decided and leaning voter results – which are the numbers reported for the party results. The margin of error for these numbers is 6.1 per cent.
But the MQO poll is just one of two polls of P.E.I. political parties out today.
The national polling firm Mainstreet Research also released poll results today for P.E.I. and other provinces.
This poll shows the P.E.I. Green party led by Peter Bevan-Baker in the lead in P.E.I. at 36 per cent and the governing Liberal party led by Wade MacLauchlan in third place at 29 per cent.
The PC party led by James Aylward is in second place at 30 per cent, according to the Mainstreet poll.
There are a few major differences between the two polls, namely in the wording of its questions to Islanders.
MQO asked the question: “If a provincial election were held today, which party would you most likely vote for?” It then listed only the four registered political parties for pollsters to select.
MQO asked Islanders to rate the leadership of Premier Wade MacLauchlan in a separate question.
Mainstreet Research, meanwhile, asked the same question, but included the names of all the party leaders in the options for pollsters to choose from.
Mainstreet did not ask separate questions to determine support for party leaders, as is done every quarter by Corporate Research Associates.
The margin of error for the Mainstreet Research poll is also smaller than the MQO poll at plus or minus 3.52 per cent and is based on a larger sample size of 647 Islanders.
But some are questioning the Mainstreet Research results, pointing to some controversy the firm faced last year after its polling results during the Calgary mayoral election consistently predicted Bill Smith would beat incumbent Naheed Nenshi – results that turned out to be wrong.
Others are pointing out the firm does not usually poll in P.E.I.
In its methodology statement, the company states the survey was not sponsored by any third-party organization.
MQO is a relative newcomer to polling in P.E.I., but has released quarterly poll results for the last year.
The last political polling done in P.E.I. came from Corporate Research Associates (CRA) in November, which has been conducting consistent polls in the Atlantic region for well over a decade.
They found the Liberals in P.E.I. had dropped to 37 per cent in November 2017, down from 45 per cent in August 2017. This was the lowest level of support for the Liberal party in CRA polls in 13 years.
The November 2017 CRA poll also found the PCs at 28 per cent and the Green party at 25 per cent.
Its separate polling results for preferred party leaders found Bevan-Baker the most popular leader in the province at 33 per cent.
MacLauchlan was at 27 per cent and Aylward was at 14 per cent.
The CRA margin of error for decided voters was plus or minus 5 per cent and was based on a sample 600 Islanders, surveyed in November.