APEC forecasts modest recovery for Atlantic Canada
The Guardian
Higher government spending is expected to boost P.E.I.'s gross domestic product for 2010, the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council said in its annual economic outlook for the four Atlantic Provinces released Monday.
Prince Edward Island held up reasonably well during the recession with real GDP expected to recover from growth of 0.4 per cent in 2009 to 1.5 per cent next year, APEC said. Higher government spending will help underpin the Island's recovery.
The world economy is showing signs of recovery following the deepest global recession since World War II, with the Atlantic region having weathered the recession better than other parts of Canada.
Fiscal stimulus, a recovery in consumer and business confidence, and a gradual pick up in global demand should help Atlantic Canada return to growth in 2010.
However, the higher Canadian dollar will temper the impact of improving U.S. demand on Atlantic exports. Longer-term challenges for the Atlantic region include the risk of slower U.S. growth and the need to address swollen provincial deficits.
New Brunswick's export dependent economy was hit hard by the recession and hopes of a strong rebound were dashed by the decision not to proceed with a second refinery in Saint John. APEC predicts that higher consumption and investment spending and improving export demand will help revive economic growth to 1.4% in 2010, compared with a decline of 1.1% this year.
Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to lead growth in the Atlantic region next year with a gain of 3.0%, following this year's 6.5% decline, which was largely due to significant declines in output in the mining and offshore oil industries. Next year's growth will reflect a rebound in output in the mining industry, supplemented by higher investment spending in the mining and offshore oil industries.
Halifax's role as a government and service centre helped provide some stability to Nova Scotia's economy despite output and employment declines elsewhere in the province. Nova Scotia's economic growth is forecast to recover from a 0.8% decline this year to growth of 1.7% in 2010, helped by higher output of natural gas and growth in investment spending.
The complete Atlantic forecast was released at APEC's annual Business Outlook Conference, held at the Delta Prince Edward in Charlottetown. The conference moves on to Saint John on Tuesday, November 10th (Hilton/Saint John Trade & Convention Centre); St. John's on Thursday, November 12th (Delta St. John's); and Halifax on Friday, November 13th (Pier 21).
Along with the presentation of APEC's annual economic outlook, the conference is featuring several presentations relating to the economic recovery ("Are We There Yet?"). APEC President Elizabeth Beale will outline her priorities for Atlantic Canada's long-term prosperity and business leaders from key sectors across the region will reveal how they are positioning their companies to take advantage of new growth opportunities.
The Atlantic Provinces Economic Council is an independent think-tank dedicated to economic progress in Atlantic Canada. APEC is a trusted source of analysis and advice on current and emerging trends in the region's economy.
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Milton Steed from Charlottetown North, PEI writes: I was pleased at first to see that PEI may come through 2009 with positive growth albeit quite slight at 0.4%. At least it looked superior to the other Atlantic provinces. However, given that it would be due to higher government spending it is very much a short term good news story. We are going to have to pay later for this distinction. It is becoming very important for Wes Sheridan to deliver on the fiscal recovery plan he promised two months ago before problems arise with DBRS and the other credit rating agencies.
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cORPORATE eXPERT from PE writes: Methinks this think tank is running a little dry.
Anywhere one can place bets on their predictions? Eazzzy money.
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