Dr. Heather Morrison, the Island’s chief health officer, responds to questions Wednesday from the media during a swine flu briefing in Charlottetown. Looking on, from left, are Education Minister Gerard Greenan, Dr. Lamont Sweet, deputy chief health officer, and Health Minister Doug Currie. Morrison is warning more Islanders will get sick with H1N1. Guardian photo by Heather Taweel.
Residents should brace themselves for more sickness as the second and more contagious wave of the swine flu begins to peak in Prince Edward Island, say the Island’s chief health officer.
Dr. Heather Morrison said it appears the number of people falling ill is on the way up province-wide, which was expected during the second wave of the virus.
While it’s impossible to say for sure, Morrison is bracing for another month of illness before H1N1 is expected to subside.
“There is usually a first curve that looks like this in the first wave, which we’ve had across the country,” Morrison said, as she demonstrated an upward motion with her arms.
“Then a second wave happens a few months later. It’s a bigger wave. That’s what they are anticipating – a bigger wave, a little bit longer. Then sometimes a few month later there is a smaller, tiny little third bump but it still can have quite severe illness even though the numbers aren’t as big in the third wave.
“That’s why vaccination is important even to protect against a third wave.”
Morrison is hopeful the widespread vaccination program, antivirals for those who are sick and the aggressive public health campaign, which is focusing on proper hand-washing and cough etiquette, will prevent some people from getting sick.
“At least the vaccine may be able to take the top off the curve here in P.E.I. so that some people will be protected.”
Traditionally, the second wave of influenza lasts four to six weeks.
P.E.I. is in the second week of that four to six week cycle which means more people will continue to get sick between now and early December.
The province is taking no chances. It has doubled the number of ventilators at Island hospitals from 23 to 46.
Ventilators help patients breathe when they are having difficult or cannot breathe on their own.
The province is also focusing its vaccination programs on young children.
While they’re seeing higher hospitalization rates in those under 15, it is those under 10 that are running into more critical care needs.
Dr. Lamont Sweet, deputy chief health officer who has closely studied pandemics, warned H1N1 is not a typical influenza and may act differently than the traditional flu. He said the swine flu may go away, and make a return later in the winter.
“This is a different virus,” said Sweet.
“It’s more contagious than any we’ve had since I’ve been here, in the 20 years that I’ve been here. Therefore, the number of ill people has gone up very, very quickly and has gone across the province very, very quickly.
“We’ll hope that it also goes more quickly than the usual virus but we don’t really know.”
Sweet said it’s also the earliest the Island has seen an influenza outbreak.
“The only time on record that it ever came sooner was the 1918 big flu outbreak where it hit the first week of October.”
The number of schools reporting swine flu outbreaks is falling.
There were 26 schools with 10 per cent of the school population reporting influenza-like illness. That’s eight in the east, 15 in the west and three French-language schools. Those numbers are down by one school in each of the Island’s three school boards.
There is also a possibility the seasonal flu may rear its head this winter.
To date, Sweet said H1N1 has driven the other three flu viruses that were expected completely out of the country.
“It could come back later,” he said.
“It’s really a wait and see.”
Just the facts:
H1N1 Spreading
— 2,000 doses of antiviral prescriptions have been written for drugs like Tamiflu, which help fend off the worst symptoms of the swine flu;
— 1,179 Islanders have presented themselves to the four flu assessment clinics across P.E.I since Oct. 31;
— 400 people have been treated at hospital emergency rooms across the Island with influenza-like illness;
— 16 patients have been admitted to hospital with what is believed to be swine flu;
— 16 is the average age of those admitted to hospital;
— 3 of those patients remain in hospital;
— 1 patient needed the assistance of a ventilator to help them breathe. They have since been taken off the ventilator and are expected to recover.
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JD from PE writes: At least now we can see the faces of the politicians who are to blame for the
mishandling of this pandemic in PEI.
Come the next election we won't forget. Nor will we forget that people like Currie and Greenan chose to make sure the jail inmates were protected before our kids were.
I just hope for Currie's and Greenan's sake there is enough inmates in those jails to vote for them. I doubt many parents will ever vote for them again.
Does all the Liberals dress the same and wear the same glasses. Is it a requirement of the Premiers?
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jean very from pei, pei writes: Are you waiting for someone to die then you will put a big show on
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Oh god from PEI writes: Run. Hide. Oh god, the flu! Do something drastic: get vaccinated. Don't worry about the mercury and other lovely things in the vaccine.
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Quick Changes 4 Sure from PEI writes: WOW Another changing Report. Yesterday Schools were seeing 10% absenteeism in most areas with30% in some.
Today we have, (Residents should brace themselves for more sickness as the second and more contagious wave of the swine flu begins to peak!) What a difference a Day Makes!
Morrison states we have a first curve, a second wave then a bigger wave and then a tiny little bump!!
To date, Sweet said H1N1 has driven the other three flu viruses that were expected completely out of the country.
I am envisioning the the Big H1N1 as the Taliban beating up on the other three Flus till they run scared off the battlefield for safety!!
We should be all copying this down, this is History in the making!!
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Take Action Stop Spread from PEI writes: CLOSE THE SCHOOLS !
Employers Ensure Sick Workers Stay Home!
Health Dept. Warn Sick People Stay out of Public Areas!
We don't have the Vaccine and it will Take Two Weeks when we get for it to Protect Anyone - TIGHTEN UP THE SHIP!
USE COMMON SENSE!
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Just the Facts ! WHAT A Change in 24hrs from PEI writes: How could a report from yesterday change so drastically????
Yesterday there were 5 Confirmed Cases!! 6 Cases all told.... NON HOSPTIALIZED ! ALL SENT HOME!! None Requiring Ventilators!
No report on Anti Viral prescriptions being written.
TODAY!!!!!
H1N1 Spreading
— 2,000 doses of antiviral prescriptions have been written for drugs like Tamiflu, which help fend off the worst symptoms of the swine flu;
— 1,179 Islanders have presented themselves to the four flu assessment clinics across P.E.I since Oct. 31;
— 400 people have been treated at hospital emergency rooms across the Island with influenza-like illness;
— 16 patients have been admitted to hospital with what is believed to be swine flu;
— 16 is the average age of those admitted to hospital;
— 3 of those patients remain in hospital;
— 1 patient needed the assistance of a ventilator to help them breathe. They have since been taken off the ventilator and are expected to recover.
HOW COULD THIS CHANGE SO RAPIDLY in LESS THAN 24 HRS????
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Darlene from P.E.I. writes: I would like to know what the real story is. Just a couple of days ago there was an article that stated Swine flu targets Island Children . In this article it was stated that to date, 6 people have been hospitalized on the island with what is believed to be H1N1. Five of those have been hospitalized with the past week with lab confirmed H1N1. None of them were sick enough to require specialized equipment to hel them breathe and all have since been discharged from hospital . This was run in the Guardian 2 days ago.
Now they are saying that 16 patients have been admitted to hospital with what is believed to be swine flu, 3 of those patients remain in hospital and 1 patient needed the assistance of a ventilator to help them breathe. What are the real facts??
P.E.I. is in the second week of that four to six week cycle which means more people will continue to get sick between now and early December. Some of the older kids won't be immunized until late November and it takes 2 weeks for the vaccine to work. Won't this be too late? If this age group is the most critical, shouldn't they be done right away? After all, they are stating that 16 is the average age of those admitted to hospital.
Are the stories going to keep changing? Does the Health department on the Island really know what to expect or are they playing roulette with our kids lifes? We are not hearing everything, only what they want us to hear.
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Island Youth from PE writes: People need to calm down.
It is obvious that the press is blowing this out of proportion. Yes, absenteeism is high. Have you ever considered that the majority of the kids are not sick, but select parents are opting to keep there kid(s) home.
Also, it is not the fault of the Provincial Government of PEI that there is a shortage! This is occuring right across the country!
The world seems pretty small for you old cranks who have nothing better to do than to comment negatively on EVERY BLOODY STORY on this site!
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16 yrs Average Age of Being Admitted toHosp from PEI writes: So why are the Elelmentary Children getting Vaccinated now vs. the Teen Agers 16 yrs and below???
And yes it will be too late by the time all our Students and Children are Vaccinated! But, apparently there is nothing anyone can do because of the shortage of Vaccine presently! They don't have enough to do one complete age group!!!
With all the Talk about H1N1 since the first of July I can't understand why there is such Delay in manufacturing the Vaccine!!! They had three months or longer given the fact they must have know they were going to be manufacturing the Vaccine long before we did!!
Bottom Line...Not Acceptable. Too many People are now at Risk due to Vaccine Delays and those Jumping the Queque when the First Clinics took place!
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GIVE YOUR HEAD A SHAKE! from pei writes: I'd stay clear of Restaurants..gyms..and all high risk areas where a lot of people are around-if you want a safe place I'd say take in a Rocket game!
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Concerned Mom from PEI writes: We are in a pandemic and it is frightening for everyone, including the health care leaders and workers. Blaming Minister Currie and Dr. Morrison does not change the fact that we have a very virulent virus that will make a lot of people sick. Some will be very sick and there may even be some deaths. We all need to do what we can to keep others safe; wash your hands, stay home if you are sick, limit time in large groups of people, cough and sneeze into your elbow, eat well, get enough sleep, and stay calm. Stop blaming the politicians and health care leaders for a naturally occurring phenomena. They are doing everything they can. We all have a role to play in controlling the spread.
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TA from pei writes: Stop the blame game. No one is to blame. This pandemic is moving along and some of us will get sick. Get vaccinated, if you choose, when your turn comes. High risk groups first then the rest of us. Think, people, how can line ups be avoided when we are trying to inoculate 35 million people. We are so used to instant access to everything we forget that life gets in the way sometimes. Some people want to politicize this issue which added to the fear factor. If I had kids at home, that's exactly where they would stay until their shot takes hold. But hen again many people would disagree with this position. The point being, we have to make personal decisions that work for the individual. Why is it necessary to blame everything on others. When this is all over, we will see how our reactions were so over the top. That certainly won't be any consolation to those of us who have lost a loved one. We are all hoping that it won't happen to any of our family members. To all health care workers, many thanks for your efforts. To the complainers, please tell us how you would do things differently and how they would be implemented that would actually improve the system.
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glen armstrong from summerside, PE writes: Why can't readers realize that the day-to-day information changes? In a situation like this, it is inevitable. And why doesn't J.D. get some help with his composition? His desire to blame any Liberal in sight is pathetic. At least, he's eased off the health people, and has switched to politicians. If they stop following the health department's advice, they'd be REALLY stupid. The blame game and negativity on flimsy evidence are tiresome.
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Sue from PEI writes: Ok we are supposed to trust the health officials when they say its a bad virus, everybody should get the shot and don't worry ,there will enough for us all.Then it was changed to high risk people only(as it should be).and oops sorry joe public ,ah we don't have enough to go around.
So now the school age childrens schedule for the shot has been changed,as this virus is being passed around more everyday.The whole plan has been handled very poorly,which makes me even more sceptical of the virus vaccine itself..is it really safe(how much testing and monitering is being done?)and is it actually effective against the swine flu?Ony time will tell,I guess.Its getting harder and harder to trust those in power that are supposed to be the experts.
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bruce from pei writes: This is for JD who thinks that it is okay to play politics with this dangerous flu. JD I know that you are a Tory , but I think that you should be a little more compasionate when you are talking about this subject. To blame this government for this flu situation is really out of line. So take time to think before you write such foolishness.
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Deb from NS writes: How many people are actually getting deathly sick? Another question, how many people usually get the flu or a cold in a regular year and how does that differ this year? Another question, when in all of history have people been forced into getting a vaccine or shot that they didn't want and how many people this year are standing in line looking scared to death asking for a shot?
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Sue from PEI writes: From this article 2,000 doses of antiviral prescriptions have been written for drugs like Tamiflu, which help fend off the worst symptoms of the swine flu ..I find this a bit troublesome..according to CCD and the WHO antivirals like TAMIFLU should only be prescribed to those who are presenting serious symptoms..like respitory problems and sometimes Doctors may prescribe it to those high risk patients ,who may develop complications ,IF they caught this flu.There is a real danger to over prescribing it to just anyone as the antiviral (tamiflu or Relenza )can become resistant as is
often seen when antiviral drugs are used in substantial quantities.This is a Treatment that can save lives,but if too many are getting it that dont need it...well they just wont work anymore and that's a scary thought.
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CC from Moncton, New Brunswick writes: JD:
First of all, it was the Federal Conservative government who made the decision to have the inmates vaccinated, not the Provincial Liberal Government. As a parent, it does concern me that scumbags in prisons get the vacine sooner than my child, but that dores not surprise me with the Harper Gov't.
Secondly, what do glasses and clothes have to do with the H1N1 flu??? Are you bitter over tha fact that you cannot afford such luxeries?
Regardless, let's stick to the issues and the issue is that the Pharmeceutical companies have done a poor job in preparing to make enough vacine. This is really not a political issue.
I am sure Mr. Currie and Mr. Greenhan have children and are concerned for their health and are not putting that before their political agendas?
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Shelly from PE writes: Hello?
Of course it will change in 24 hours- it is actually changing LITERALLY minute by minute. It only takes a couple of hours from feeling healthy to feeling VERY sick. Chances are someone could be being admitted to hospital as you read this. One of those patients currently in hospital may get sicker and need a ventilator before the next update. Tonight’s news could very well have different numbers to report. The health dept is keeping the public updated - “update” means there has been a change!!!!!
Close the schools? Then what? All the healthy older kids hang out at the mall and the virus spreads even faster. The younger kids need child care so parents have to stay home from work - (most without pay). Basic services begin to slow or shut down due to lack of resources to provide those services - then what?
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Skeptics from pe writes: Don't woory folks, If one explanation does not make any sense, then Dr Morrison will try another which makes even less sense. Do not expect to get a real answer. ALL SMOKE AND MIRRORS.
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Gallant from PEI writes: — 16 patients have been admitted to hospital with what is believed to be swine flu;
So that means there are ZERO confirmed cases on PEI?
And all this panic!!
BELIEVED to be swine flu is not a confirmed case.
I wouldn't pay child support if a woman would tell me she BELIEVES I'm the father of her child.
Everyone says better safe than sorry about the vaccine.
That's what I say too better to not take it in case it's poisoning me
It's a flu season like any other, but the media are fear mongering!!!
More kids out of schools because they stay home for the sniffles and a slight cough.
Others stay home so they won't catch the flu!
The question isn't who has bungled up the vaccine program, the question is more, who created this PHONY pandemic.
Oh, I just answered my own question....WHO, World Health Organization.
Crooks and Liars!!!
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Sick as a Dog from pei writes: CC from Moncton. Get your facts right. The federal government would be the ones making decisions about federal pens, but provincial lock ups are the province's jurisdiction. It was the provincial health authorities that made the decision to give inmates at Sleepy Hollow, PEI's provincial jail, the H1N1 shot ahead of the schoolchildren.
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IslanderGirl from Charlottetown, PEI writes: Listen Everyone, You have to stop blaming our government for a shortage in vaccines. This is purely a manufacturing issue and NOBODY can make it better except the manufacturing company. Yes, people are getting sick but really... have we studied the rate of absentism in previous years to compare. I doubt the numbers were really looked at previously and now that they are, people seem to make a big deal out of it. A lot of those numbers are scared parents or kids with a cold or are healthy for that matter - Ever think that maybe parents are saying their kids are sick with Swine Flu cause they dont want their kids to get behind in school work and hope that they will close schools or just dont want them to get the flu in the first place? Our government is handling this the best they can but stop acting like we are the only province affected by this. It's a world-wide problem!! To those wondering the facts about rates -- a lot can change in 2 days, doesn't mean the original #'s or the #'s now aren't factual. You have to keep in mind it takes a couple of days to get the results back for confirmed cases. Another thing to keep in mind, if your child has already been exposed to the virus -- and didn't get sick yet, chances are they won't since there systems have already built up an immunity.... thats how our bodies were designed in the first place.
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To Gallant KUDOS! from PEI writes: My sentiments exactly.
And thanks for the laugh, I needed one!
The WHO indeed! And What, When and Where are still at large! HA HA
The only thing we know for sure is that we don't anything for sure!
I can't understand why Rick Mercer and Ron James aren't using this material!!!!!
Somebody really should email them! HA
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TO: Just the Facts from PEI writes: Oh the difference a day makes.................................... YES that is right............... with a flu such as this one - it only takes 24 hours OR LESS to make significant changes..................... please enlighten yourself and get YOUR FACTS straight ...............or refrain from such ridiculous posts and accusations.
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CC from Moncton, New Brunswick writes: Sorry Sick as a Dog, you are wrong, even though the jails are provincial, all penitentary's in Canada are overseen by the Federal Gov't. All funding from the province is backed by the Federal Gov''t for all jails within Canada.
Regardless, your comment has nothing to do with the problem at hand, not enough flu shots because the Pharmaceutical companies have not made enough vacine......
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pourpouse get real from PEI writes: get real everyone, its the federal government who loused up on the vaccine not the provinces! Put the blame where it belongs
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