© Guardian photo by Brian McInnis
This winter on P.E.I. will be warmer than usual, like last year, but more unsettled with nor-easters and bluster, predicts the Weather Network.
"We are expecting a fairly active storm track through the east coast," says Gina Ressler, a meteorologist with the Weather Network.
It issued its three-month outlook Monday for the months of December, January and February.
"Probably a little bit more of a stormy winter compared to your typical winter," said Ressler.
More nor-easter storms but also more "clipper" weather systems coming across P.E.I. from the west, she said.
"With those storm tracks, we are expecting those lows to really pull in those warm temperatures from the south and also tap into some of that Atlantic moisture," said Ressler.
The storms are most likely to be wet, rainy ones through the winter.
Contributing to this computer-model prediction is the forecast for colder arctic air coming further south into central Canada this year.
"Once that cold air heads over to the east coast and interacts with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, then that is how you spawn these east-coast lows," said Ressler.
Another contributing factor for the prediction is something called the North Atlantic oscillation, a pattern of changing atmospheric pressure.
"We can look at these different types of patterns and how they will affect the jet stream into the long range. If we have an idea of what the jet stream is doing, then that will give us an idea of what our storm tracks might be like."
Last year the jet stream maintained a fairly even west to east line. This year it is predicted to have a wavy pattern over North American, pulling cold air down in the middle and allowing warm air to remain up close to Atlantic Canada, she said.