Islanders could be in for some good fall weather with above normal temperatures and normal amounts of rain, says a meteorologist.
Weather Network meteorologist Dayna Vettese said temperatures are usually not bad in September but start to drop off in October and November.
“September tends to be a pretty decent month,” she said.
It has been a warm, dry summer for P.E.I. with below average rainfall drying out everything from lawns to parts of Charlottetown’s drinking water source.
During a recent downpour, more rain fell on Charlottetown in 24 hours than it had through all of July.
Vettese said in September through November P.E.I. usually gets about 250-300 mm of rain, which is what the province should expect again this year.
That’s about the same as the typical summer, which also averages about 300 mm.
But Vettese said this summer P.E.I. only got about 100 mm of rain from June through August.
“It’s been a fairly dry summer so we should see things tick back up to normal through the fall months,” she said.
When it comes to fall temperatures, Vettese said September tends to get a little cooler than the summer with daytime highs around 18-20 C before dropping to temperatures in the low teens in October and single digits in November.
“It’s a pretty big decline through the fall months,” she said.
Along with the lower temperatures, the fall can also bring more sever weather with hurricane season and Vettese said they can have a big impact on the amount of rain in the province.
“If you get a tropical system come through, it can drop a hundred plus millimetres of rain in a few hours,” she said.
Vettese said how much extra rain P.E.I. gets will depend on how many tropical systems make their way through the Atlantic provinces.
This year’s prediction is an above average number of hurricanes because of above average water temperatures and conditions that are more conducive to tropical storms, she said.
But she said whether or not any of them affect the Atlantic region or make landfall in the area is hard to predict.
“That will come with each individual storm,” she said.
Warmer than average water temperatures could help sustain storms through the Atlantic provinces, but other factors in the upper atmosphere can help keep them going or kill them, she said.
“But generally speaking the warmer waters do help in maintaining the storm.”
rross@theguardian.pe.ca
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