Early edge to Ballem in PC race



The results of a Corporate Research Associates poll conducted exclusively for The Guardian Guardian illustration by Paul Pettipas

The results of a Corporate Research Associates poll conducted exclusively for The Guardian

Published on September 5th, 2010
Published on September 5th, 2010
Wayne Thibodeau RSS Feed
Topics :
Progressive Conservative Party , Corporate Research Associates , The Guardian , Prince , Kings , Queens

Mills said it's important to note the polling data includes the views of all Islanders, not just those who hold memberships with the Progressive Conservative Party. However, it will only be card-carrying members who will vote for the party's next leader.

"Keep in mind the general population will not be electing this leader," Mills said.

Pollsters also examined where each leadership hopeful has the most support.

Ballem appears to enjoy the most support in his native Queens County at 32 per cent. But he also enjoys strong support in Prince County at 21 per cent, which may come as a surprise to Crane supporters who felt their candidate had a strong following in the western part of the province.

Ballem's weakest support is found in Kings County at 17 per cent.

Crane's support base appears to be in her home county of Kings County where 28 per cent said she'd make the best leader. That's followed by 21 per cent in Queens County and 14 per cent in Prince County.

Fox's support base is in his native Prince County at 14 per cent. His support drops to the low single digits in Kings and Queens counties where he isn't as well known.

Llewellyn's base of support is in his home county of Kings County, where he has the support of 18 per cent of Islanders. His support also drops into the single digits in Queens and Prince counties.

McCardle has virtually no support in Kings and Queens counties. He has the support of about eight per cent of Islanders in his native Prince County.

While Crane may be the only woman in the race, Ballem actually enjoys more support from female voters.

About 29 per cent of men and 24 per cent of women prefer Ballem, compared with 21 per cent of men and 19 per cent of women who said Crane would make the best leader.

Corporate Research Associates carried out the poll exclusively for The Guardian.

Pollsters conducted the survey of 300 adult residents Aug. 9-24.

The poll is considered accurate within plus or minus 5.6 per cent 95 times out of 100.

As far as Islanders are concerned it appears to be a two-person race, said Mills.

"Because these people are so well known they don't have to spend as much time getting themselves profiled in the province," said Mills. "Either of those two candidates start with a leg up."

wthibodeau@theguardian.pe.ca

 

  • Page(s)
  • 1 -
  • 2

Comments

  • Username
    country boy
    - September 7th, 2010 at 20:27:26

    Peter, the province you describe is not the province that I know. Yes, we have challenges like everyone else. Some of these challenges could be met head on with proper political decisions but we the voters have to share in the blame. Everyone wants a hospital in their corner of the province and they will not vote for anyone who has the courage to tell us that we must change. If both main parties would take a stand and say enough is enough we would all be winners. In my view, I would vote for the party that promises two hospitals and I do live in the country. The poor suffer no matter where they live. The rest of your assertions, well sometimes you have to look inward to see where the problems lie...

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    Peter
    - September 7th, 2010 at 15:09:14

    #1 GEORGE-If Islanders give This Liberal government a 2nd term, their not too bright. It's really a shame that Islander's didn't have a third political party to chose from. #2-COUNTRY BOY- You mention the lack Nurses & Doctors. A provinces government & it's courts - (they Are intertwined), All including how it treats it's citizens is A deciding factor in these Professionals decision as where they will move to, to practice Medicine. Money is Not always number 1 in their decisions. Unfortunatly, PEI has a failing grade in both government & it's justice system, it's courts. What professional is going to move their family to a province literally drowning in illegal drugs? Where it's courts allow men, violent against women-Walk? Where it's government contributes to it's People's poor health by not providing enough to it's poor and it's disabled, it's seniors to access the neccessities of Life-their Medications-Special Needs or even enough to get to a hospital-a doctor? Doctors & Nurses try to save lives-not sit back unable to do anything while they watch people's health needlessly decline.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    MIltonSteed
    - September 7th, 2010 at 11:05:27

    First of all, Guardian, your new site format and your way of managing it make the site diffcult for submititng and reading comments esp. on your political stories. Formerly a story went up when it was published in print format and we had a chance to make comment for a period of time. Now a story may or may not go up and if and when it does it can suddenly disappear according to some randon process. I had to use the search fucntion to find this story. I do not understand what you are doing, Guardian, but you should be opting for transparency, not random manipulation. I have been puzzled abouth this so called PC leadership poll for the last several days. I do not recall CRA doing a poll for past provincial party leaderships, the Liberal one that picked Ghiz or the PC one that selected Binns before that. Why have you done htis poll? It is extremely manipulative, asking many people who may be Ghiz supporters what their views may be on the PC convention, and that reporting it as some kind of indication of how the PC race is going. The Guardian, along with the Graphic and CBC, have led a pro-Ballem campaign for weeks now. Nobody asked Ballem about PNP nor have we been told anything about his consultancy work over the last three years. Has Ballem had any successes in renewable energy development? What has been up to? What has been the source of his income? Did he receive PNP payments? We have seem Crane in action and she had to endure the behind the scenes of old style Tories, PNP cobe rup Liberals and media who seem to want to cover up abuses such as the PNP scandal, for soem mysterious reason. And you give Ballem a free ride? C'mon. None of you show any respect for the unusual courage that Crane is demonstrating. It is shameful. For example, Crane called for a public inquiry on PNP almost 2 years ago. You did an editorial poo poing the inquiry 18 months ago and have said nothing since. Pretty shameful, really. Will you ask Ballem his views on a public inquiry for PNP? You are unfair to Olive Crane but her courage has further motivated those of us who know she is a decent person who will finally clean up PEI government, after decades of patronage, abuse and waste esp, in the area of economic development. Despite bad health I will be there for Crane in October, my first PC meeting since Angus MacLean was Premier. You can write and manipulate for Ballem all you like but the determined and the just will prevail in October- against Ballem and in October 2011- against Ghiz. You can try to influence the result of the PC convention but you cannot completely contorl it. There are to many of us with the public interest in mind to let you do this to us. Again.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    Old Tory
    - September 6th, 2010 at 18:06:38

    Mark, your math is some what embarrassing. No wonder our school system is ranked last.

    Submit a Comment

    • Username
      English Professor
      - September 6th, 2010 at 18:29:33

      And so is your english.

  • Username
    Donnie D.
    - September 6th, 2010 at 16:59:21

    I think Crane would have the best chance of winning against the Liberals in the next election. She would do much better with the swing vote than Ballem. Ballem is tied too much to the former government. They need some one with experience from former gov't, but not someone who was involved in their failed ventures. That is Crane. If they are smart, they will put Crane in. She could attract better peolpe to run.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    george
    - September 6th, 2010 at 16:59:17

    The Conservatives don't have a strong candidate to run in the next election, no matter who wins for the Tories, on Oct 2, 2010. The Liberals may not be liked due to the infamous PNP scandal, the continuous increasing deficit and the fact that they line other back bencher and liberal party supporters with more profit. (no different then any other party) The polls say they are strong. It is typical of Islanders to vote the party in for two terms, liberals will be in again. We may not want the liberals in for another 4 years but there is not much competition.....

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    scott
    - September 6th, 2010 at 16:58:29

    I agree completely with country boy. It is unreal that a province the size of PEI has as many hospitals as it does. Which party will stand up and make the tough, but correct choice , and close all but summerside and charlottetown? Then redirect funding to those 2 places. the time has come.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    Mark
    - September 6th, 2010 at 10:03:47

    Sorry New Tory. If Ballem holds a6 % lead and the error is 5.6 then he could be leading by 18 points as his error brings him to 31% and the error for olive bring her back to 14 % using your analogy that the error would be negative. This was over before it started. Ballem was late registering for the vote to be sure he knew who the other candidates were.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    Spudgal
    - September 6th, 2010 at 08:59:00

    Surely the following is a misprint? Pat Binns'? (Pat Binns' former environment minister has a modest six-point lead going into the Oct. 2 leadership convention which will be held at the University of Prince Edward Island.) It's the first time I've seen the president of Corporate Research Associates make a public statement about a poll regarding a candidate having a real edge and single out the Candidate and detail his support from specific areas!

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    darcy mill
    - September 6th, 2010 at 08:58:16

    Jamie Ballem is an average candidate at best, stepping up for a job no one thats any good wants, reminds me of Stéphane Dion, if Ballem dose get in i could see the same thing happening to him ending up losing seats in the next election.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    Westerner
    - September 6th, 2010 at 08:57:25

    If anyone thinks that Jamie Fox has as much as support as Olive Crane in Western PEI, they are sadly mistaken. We is the west also still remember Ballem's days on the Potato Comission/Board and we are still not happy.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    country boy
    - September 6th, 2010 at 08:57:14

    The most important question for these candidates to answer is what actions will you take to fix our health care situation on PEI. Will you close all hospitals except Summerside and Charlottetown? There aren't enough doctors and nurses to staff all of our hospitals and harsh actions are required for the benefit of all of us. Not only are there not enough doctors, others don't want to come here because of the pressures they face due to the poor political decisions that are made. Where to these candidates stand on this issue?

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    New Tory
    - September 5th, 2010 at 20:55:09

    Kind of a misleading headline. Ballem is ahead by 6% and the margin of error is + or - 5.6 %. Its almost a tie really. Plus the undecided is way higher than all candidates. The pollster should know better.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    Jimbo Jones
    - September 5th, 2010 at 18:24:46

    I am not a Tory (or a Liberal). I do, however, like Jamie Ballem. He's not perfect, and I wasn't a fan of the Tories when they decided to draw their own electoral map, but Ballem is a good guy. He did a lot for wind energy on PEI and has some vision for the future. The Tories could do a lot worse.

    Submit a Comment

  • Username
    nitpicker
    - September 5th, 2010 at 16:56:11

    Nothing against Mr. Ballem, he may very well be the best qualified candidate. But unfortunately, I can't help but wonder if his lead is based on the fact that, as a former cabinet minister, his lead in this early poll is because he is the most 'known' candidate. What do these candidates stand for? What would they do as leader if elected to that position?

    Submit a Comment

Submit a Comment

Submit a Comment

This form is NOT used for emailing the article to a friend. Please use the "Send to a friend" link at the top of the page for that purpose.

The Guardian is not responsible for posted comments. Please be polite and confine your comments to the subject of the posted story. If you have an account, please sign on to it..

(we keep all emails private)
Agreement

We ask that users remain courteous. You may not post insulting, discriminatory or inappropriate content, which may be removed at our discretion. We are not responsible for user content and opinions. Use of this site as well as content submission & ownership are governed by our Conditions of Use and Privacy Policy.

Member organizations should be non-profit in nature, and promote legal activities. Any organization found promoting illegal activities or commercial products or services will be deleted from the site.

I agree with these conditions.

Advertising

More

And you can also view our great discount COUPONS here

Expert bloggers

Ride for Heart
Blogger
Heart and Stroke Foundation
Preparation is key
[Sponsored]

More bloggers here

Newsletter

Please enter your email to receive our free newsletter

Subscribe to news alerts
loading...
SmartEdition logo smart

The Guardian Twitter

Advertising