HALIFAX — As fishermen tied up their boats and farmers fretted over their orchards, forecasters tracking the movement of Hurricane Earl say it’s looking more likely that the swirling storm will touch down in western Nova Scotia on Saturday.
John Parker, a meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said while Earl’s track is becoming clearer, southern New Brunswick hasn’t been entirely ruled out as a point of contact.
“It is tightening up on the uncertainty so we’re looking at Saturday morning, moving up over western Nova Scotia — Digby, Yarmouth counties most likely,” Parker said Friday.
Earl, now a Category 2 storm tracking east of Cape Hatteras, N.C., is expected to speed up as it makes its Maritime entrance as a weakened Category 1, meaning it would be packing winds between 119 and 152 kilometres per hour.
The hurricane centre said Earl’s maximum sustained winds are about 167 km/h. Parker said the storm is moving north-northeast at about 30 km/h.
He said the hurricane is expected to be offshore Saturday around 9 a.m., before tracking across the Maritimes and approaching Prince Edward Island around 3 p.m., give or take about six hours.
In Nova Scotia’s Annapolis Valley, farmer Jonathan Fuller stood in his apple orchard under a blazing sun, wondering what would become of the 32 hectares of not-quite-ripe fruit.
“I’m worried. I hate the thought of it,” said Fuller, who’s been growing apples with Fuller Brothers Farm in Avonport for 20 years.
“It just seems like you get through the summer, you get a good crop and you’re just on the verge of picking and the hurricane comes along. It’s always a concern ... We’ll keep our fingers caused.”
Fuller said even if Earl doesn’t get a good grip on his apples and rip them from the trees, the delicate fruit can knock together in the wind and bruise.
“It can be quite heartbreaking,” he said.
As Earl churned toward the Maritimes on Friday, tropical storm watches were extended to Cape Breton and Iles-de-la-Madeleine.
Hurricane watches are also in effect across southwestern Nova Scotia — in Queens, Shelburne, Yarmouth and Digby counties.
Other areas of mainland Nova Scotia are either under tropical storm watches or warnings. All of Prince Edward Island is also under a tropical storm warning.
In southeastern New Brunswick, rainfall warnings and tropical storm watches are in effect.
Environment Canada said it is likely that portions of southwestern Nova Scotia will have wind gusts as high as 130 km/h.
Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, as far as the eastern shore and the Bay of Fundy, maximum wind gusts will likely reach 90 km/h. The same is being forecast for portions of P.E.I. and New Brunswick.
“Later today we will determine where hurricane warnings will be placed if required,” the hurricane centre, based in the Halifax suburb of Dartmouth, said in a statement.
“If hurricane warnings are issued, then our forecast wind gusts will be around 130 km/hr for the affected regions.”
Between 40 and 70 millimetres of rain will likely fall on Saturday, with southern and central New Brunswick and northwestern P.E.I. expected to receive the most.
Parker said weather watchers shouldn’t focus just on Earl’s track when making preparations for the impending storm.
“It’s around, on either side,” he said. “There’s going to be heavy rains ahead and to the west of the storm and there’s going to be very strong winds on the east side of the storm, covering most of mainland Nova Scotia.”
Despite the fact that Earl has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, the centre said “an abnormally hot and humid” air mass hanging over the Maritimes would allow the storm to maintain its tropical characteristics.
Earl will weaken as it moves over cooler waters and over the land, said Parker. If its wind speeds dip below 120 km/hr, Earl will be downgraded to a tropical storm.
But Parker said people shouldn’t be fooled by Earl’s rank.
“Either way, those wind gusts of over 100 (km/hr) ... with all the leaves on the trees, still have potential damage,” he said.
“We shouldn’t focus on what the category of the storm is, we should be prepared for those very strong wind gusts.”
The hurricane’s squalls have started lashing North Carolina’s dangerously exposed Outer Banks, the first stop on the storm’s projected path up the Eastern Seaboard.
Parker said the storm surge is expected to raise water levels above normal ranges in the Maritime region.
“Waves on top of the storm surge could create a problem with battering along the coastlines, so people should stay aware of that and stay away from the coasts,” he said.
Parker said the greatest threat will be in western and southern Nova Scotia up to the eastern shore, parts of the Northumberland Strait and the southern end of the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Marine Atlantic, which operates ferries between Cape Breton and Newfoundland, said it would issue an update Friday on how the service would be impacted by Earl.
Spokeswoman Tara Laing said the company is monitoring the weather. She said customers will be advised of potential service interruptions through Marine Atlantic’s website, toll-free reservation line and automated customer notification system.
