Following is the latest information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 1.23 AM ADT Thursday, Sept. 2.
At 3.00 a.m. ADT Hurricane Earl was located about 400 nautical miles or 740 km south
southeast of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
120 knots... 222 km/h... And central pressure at 932 MB. Earl is
Moving north northwest at 17 knots... 31 km/h.
Possible landfall of Earl in Atlantic Canada is still over
48 hours away. Therefore the details of the public impacts will
Be more accurately assessed later today and tonight. It is likely
that high wind and heavy rain will affect portions of Atlantic
Canada on Saturday. Official watches and warnings will likely be
issued later this afternoon.
The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend
plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions.
It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the
latest forecast decisions and rationale. These are issued 4
Times daily.
Gale warnings have been issued for Browns Bank and Georges Bank
With the approach of Earl Friday evening, it is very likely
that these gales will be expanded to other marine areas
And that storm warnings and hurricane force wind warnings will
Be required for portions of the Atlantic canadian marine district.
These warnings would be issued early Friday morning.
Ocean swell will begin to reach the Nova Scotia coast today well
ahead of Earl.
With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can
Expected along the coast of the southern Maritimes Friday night and
Saturday morning and along the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines
Saturday afternoon and evening.
Earl is now rounding the westernmost flank of the subtropical ridge
hence will take on an more northward motion through the day.
Thereafter it will be increasingly guided by an upper trough moving
through the Great Lakes. This will cause it to accelerate through
Atlantic Canada as it weakens. Given the high potential temperatures
Of the airmass over the Maritimes.. Earl will continue to hold onto
its tropical characteristics for a long time as it loses its
Symmetry. As pointed out in previous messages.. Water temperatures
south of Nova Scotia are above normal by 2 to 4 degrees and have
Been persistently warm during the latter part of August. This
Factor will play into our forecast of intensity as the
Storm moves over those waters.
Ultimately.. the Great Lakes trough will advance through Eastern
Canada and steadily rob Earl of its energy as Earl becomes gradually
incorporated into this feature. Frictional degradation is another
factor which will weaken Earl.
A multitude of numerical models continue to show little
Significant change on Earl's forecast track toward Atlantic Canada.
As a result our confidence is increasing that Earl will move into
Southern Nova Scotia Saturday morning. However.. Our experience
shows that we must cautious at the same time. Though our envelope
Of possibiliies on Earl's track is diminishing.. Earl could end
Up as far west as the Bay of Fundy or as far east as Cape Breton
Island.
The official track map posted on our websites.. Although specific in
terms of a line marked with storm positions at specific times and
Showing Earl as a landfalling category-one hurricane..Simply
represents the average of many factors.
Asymmetries in the wind and rain fields will develop as the storm
moves toward the Maritimes. Heaviest rain will likely move toward
The front side of the storm and highest winds concentrated to the
right of the storm track. This is important to keep in mind when
considering the track forecast relative to your location. Highest
rainfalls with storms like this will likely be to the left (west) of
the storm track. Later today we will introduce estimates of wind
Speeds and rainfall in a track-relative sense..Then establish
geographically-specific details going into Friday.
Swells from Earl will begin reaching the Nova Scotia coast today.
Gale warnings are now in effect for Browns Bank and Georges Bank.
These gales will very likely be expanded and/or upgraded to storm
warnings or hurricane force wind warnings with the marine forecasts
early Friday morning.
