Residents of Prince Edward Island should brace themselves for between four and seven hurricanes, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA.
NOAA says one to three of those storms will become major hurricanes.
In total, the U.S.-based agency is expecting between nine to 14 named storms.
Tropical systems acquire a name - the first for 2009 will be Ana - when the storm reaches tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour or 63 kilometres per hour.
But Peter Bowyer of the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax warns that those forecasts are far from perfect and there is really little connection between the number of storms in the Atlantic Ocean and the number of storms that may hit Atlantic Canadian provinces.
"We want to get everybody to shift away from these specific forecasts, not because they're no good but the fact is we don't look at them the same way that maybe some others do simply because what happens here in Canada is really not closely connected to what is actually happening in the Atlantic," said Bowyer.
"We're no pooh-poohing the forecast at all. We're just saying they don't give people what they think they're going to get out of these forecasts. But it is a darn good opportunity for us to remind everyone it is hurricane season."
NOAA isn't the only organization that tries to forecast hurricanes.
Colorado State University is predicting two major hurricanes while the UK-based Tropical Storm Risk or TSR is predicting between two and five major hurricanes.
Aaron Campbell, director of public safety in Prince Edward Island, said in reality it only takes one major hurricane to cause widespread destruction. He said that's why it is important for Islanders to prepare for the hurricane season, which gets underway in June.
Campbell began his job three days before hurricane Hanna hit last September.
The storm brought heavy winds and rain particularly to eastern Prince Edward Island.
Roads were washed out in some spots, including along the Trans-Canada Highway in Cornwall.
"We're not immune from severe weather affecting us," said Campbell.
NOAA acknowledges the uncertainty of its forecasting, point out that global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years.
It says there is a 50 per cent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 per cent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 per cent probability of a below-normal season.
Bowyer said he continues to get asked what people can expect from the upcoming hurricane season for their respective provinces, counties and towns.
"I have no idea. There is nobody out there that can give us the answer to that question."
CLASS OF 2009
Hurricane names
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
Be prepared
Preparing Islanders to cope on their own for the first 72 hours in an emergency is the first step to being prepared.
1. Know the risks
- It can happen here.
- Five main risks in P.E.I. are hurricane, blizzard, ice storm, forest fire, flood or storm surge.
- Other risks include disease outbreak, pandemic, drought, storm, hazardous spills, terrorism.
2. Make a plan
- If a disaster happens, it may take emergency workers some time to get to you as they help those in desperate need first.
- Don't wait for an emergency to happen.
- Plan ahead for 72 hours.
3. Prepare a kit
- Create your own emergency kit (checklists in the 72 Hour
Guide), - or purchase one from the Canadian Red Cross or at some retail outlets.
Information:
- Pick up a copy of the 72 Hour Guide, or call for a copy
894-0385.
- Download the guide at www.peiemo.ca and click on 72 Hours.
- In an emergency always listen to media reports for emergency notifications and information from local officials and follow their instructionswhite fill on photo box to do a close-cropped photo.
wthibodeau@theguardian.pe.ca
